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Post by 48 on Aug 21, 2011 19:05:42 GMT -5
ProFarmer starts their Corn/SB tour. I love PF. I've taken it off and on for over 20yr. But, for 20yr I have complained about their protocol. They measure the length of ears. That's BS if you're measuring an ear that didn't pollinate. They need to do real Kernel Counts and real Yield Estimates varying 100,000 as appropriate for kernel depth....AND...ideally for TW of the corn. But, that would require them to know the variety/company. My next gripe with them is that they calibrate it to USDA. USDA is a Comic Strip. Do real yield estimates and report it and forget about USDA.
Here is a real zinger from the latest PF: "On average since 2001, the yield calculated from all corn samples has been 6.6bu above USDA's final national average corn yield. (The avg. yield of the crop in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, S. Dakota, and Nebraska had better be higher than the national average yield!)"
Well....IL, IN, and OH are a wreck this year. SD has an above average crop. Just do REAL yield estimates and report the results and forget about USDA.
Here's another zinger under "Historical Errors." In NE 60% of the crop is irrigated, but the tours only include 40% irrigated. Well...duh! Shift the tour routes to reflect a "representative sample"!!!!!!
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Post by glowplug on Aug 22, 2011 7:44:26 GMT -5
Corn futures are called 8 to 9 cents higher. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT is 8 to 8 3/4 cents higher. Outside market support and continued talk of lower corn yields this week will be supportive. Weekend rainfall missed some the driest areas of the Corn that runs from southern Minnesota through Iowa to central Illinois. Crop stress in those areas is likely to reduce yields. A rebound in Dow Jones futures in overnight trade and weakness in the dollar could help support commodity markets this morning as well.
Soybean futures are called 12 to 13 cents higher. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT is 12 1/4 to 12 3/4 cents higher. The soybean market remains in its trading range that is roughly $13-$14. Futures have rallied to the high end of that range on ideas of reduced soybean yields in some areas of the Midwest. There was some weekend precipitation in the Midwest, but dry areas of southern Minnesota, Iowa, central Illinois and southern Indiana remain dry. Crop stress is likely to limit yield potential. Gains may be limited by ideas of sluggish export demand in the weekly export inspections report out this morning.
Wheat futures are called 10 to 15 cents higher. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 10 3/4 to 11 cents higher at the CBOT, 8 to 8 3/4 cents higher at the KCBT and 10 to 13 cents higher at the MGE. The MGE is leading the gains in the wheat markets again overnight on disappointing spring wheat yields. The winter wheat markets are being pushed higher as well on weakness in the dollar overnight and spillover support from spring wheat and corn.
Cattle futures are called lower on the open. The Cattle on Feed report released after the close on Friday was bearish for the market. July placements were larger than expected at up 22% from year-ago. The number of cattle on feed at up 8% from year-ago and the largest number in five years. The report will likely put pressure on cattle prices especially December and February futures. The big increase in placements this summer will add to beef supplies particularly late this year and early 2012.
Lean hog futures are called steady to mixed. Cash trade stabilized last Friday and pork cutouts were 73 cents higher. However, the outlook is for cash markets to decline as slaughter weights are expected to increase at the same time market ready hog numbers increase. Futures rebounded on Friday and losses should be limited even if cash turns lower because futures have already built in a large drop in the cash market.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 23, 2011 8:45:21 GMT -5
Overnights were up. There should be enough momentum to make this an up day. WI is apparently the lucky state as far as weather goes. Most, not all, of WI is doing well. We could use some rain (spare us the 5" inch downpour stuff dman).
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 23, 2011 9:17:08 GMT -5
ProFarmer starts their Corn/SB tour. I love PF. I've taken it off and on for over 20yr. But, for 20yr I have complained about their protocol. They measure the length of ears. That's BS if you're measuring an ear that didn't pollinate. They need to do real Kernel Counts and real Yield Estimates varying 100,000 as appropriate for kernel depth....AND...ideally for TW of the corn. But, that would require them to know the variety/company. My next gripe with them is that they calibrate it to USDA. USDA is a Comic Strip. Do real yield estimates and report it and forget about USDA. See, that's where they f'd up. I do kernel counts here, not really for true yield estimates, but for comparison sake from year to year. I know that if my kernel counts are down 10% from last year, and last year the average average is 180, then I can expect to see yields around 162. If PF would compare kernel counts vs trailing average, they would be more believable. Again, dead on here. The independent crop tours should be, well, independent. IF they are trying to align with another entity, then why do it?? I've had a real problem with the PF numbers for a few years now. It's more propaganda now than a real attempt at estimating yield across the central corn belt. Flory has made himself irrelevant.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 23, 2011 9:40:22 GMT -5
I've also done kernel counts here and I figure WI will have a good but not great year. We've had mostly good growing season, though a cool start. Getting some rain now so I expect the kernels, soybeans will plump up. (Obviously up north, we operate on a later schedule than you more southern boys.)
Struggled with too much moisture during planting time, got denitrification later, some guys had their sidedress efforts go for naught, crops did a lot of catching up during the hot weather but no hot enough to impact pollenization for the most part. Well that's the replay of the game film thus far.
We need some heat units. Been too cool lately. Some cheeseheads need more rain than others right now. Insect pressures on corn and beans have been minimal. I'm wondering on the soybean aphid thing. The "experts" keep predicting from egg counts that we're due but it ain't happened.
WI doesn't count, guess we're 8 or 9 in corn production. But what Flory and the others do is screw up our corn prices with this nonsense.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 23, 2011 9:57:22 GMT -5
I'm about 1/3 of the way done with counts. Intentionally, I've hit the worst fields first.
Here is what I've been finding. Overall, kernal counts are down in the same fields over two years ago. Pollination was incomplete in all fields I've been in. Missing kernals, zippered ears, and lots of aborted kernels on the end. This will further reduce yields. I'm looking at 12-15% below the trailing average kernal counts. I'm saying kernel counts per acre, due to varying population - generally higher. Counts per ear have decreased as my populations have increased, but the overall trend is higher kernals per acre, just not this year or last. My counts are coming up about the same as 2010. We averaged just above 160 last year to give you a benchmark, against an APH of 200+.
We got the crop in on time in 2010 but hit excessive rain after planting. This year, we were late getting in the crop, then it was cool and wet and turned off hot and dry through July and August.
Maturity wise, we have caught up and are maybe a touch ahead on corn. Except for the full season corn, most where showing about 1/2 milkline. Soybeans we are about where we should be.
Got 2" of rain this morning that was a godsend. No rain for three weeks as the soybeans are waiting to fill. This should finish them off in good shape.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 23, 2011 10:04:49 GMT -5
Thanks for the report, Dave. I visited with farmers from 4 states a couple weeks ago. As I said, WI has fared well weather wise, for the most part. But it won't be a bin buster.
MN isn't as good. IA has issues in some areas. IL struggles. IN has ECI (see if he's paying attention). That rain should give you some great beans, hopefully.
How about you other guys? Corn and beans up right now, should be going up given the fundamentals.
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Post by 48 on Aug 23, 2011 14:11:08 GMT -5
We usually have summer lows, and I don't usually recommend marketing this early, but I don't look gift horses in the mouth either.
If you use Dec to market crops, you need to CHANGE to Jul and use Apr-May-Jun scale up sales...usually.
BUT!
CN2 closed at....welllll....make that....it was 759'2 when I came here. Nothing wrong with doing a scale up HTA at 759'2 using CN2 if your end user will let you. Set the basis in Apr-May-Jun when you deliver. Basis should be better then.
Sell @cn2 900Call for 41'4.
Just do it as a spec....or....it pays 10 mo of commercial storage....or 41'4 of basis improving your net.
What if corn keeps going up? Rinse&Repeat.
Refer to my previous post about CIS study showing that when USDA shows yield in Aug below trendline, 7 of 8 years, final yield was HIGHER!
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Post by 48 on Aug 23, 2011 14:15:55 GMT -5
My karma is -10. Does that mean I'm an azzhole? mfs=A-Hole No. 1. I'm A-Hole No. 2. dman=A-Hole No. 3, but we're thinking about throwing him out of the club cuz he's too nice. lol. larrydc=A-Hole No. 4. To be considered for membership in this club you have to be a patriotic conservative American (that leaves out dimrats and republicants and RINOs), a straight shooter, and have high integrity and not worry about winning popularity contests. lol.
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Post by 48 on Aug 23, 2011 14:23:52 GMT -5
Yield=Kernel Count x Population/100,000. When you do Kernel Counts, you need to take into account Kernel DEPTH! If it's Golden Harvest 9173 with big deep kernels and TW=58, you need to use 90,000. If it's Pioneer 34F97 with deep kernels, you need to use 85,000 cuz Pioneer TW will be 60-61-62. If it's Dekalb 59-88 with tiny kernels, you need to use 110,000.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 23, 2011 17:35:49 GMT -5
Don't worry about karma, 48. Rumor has it there is a Strategic Karma Reserve just waiting to help me out of my deficit.............
Appears that the CBOT knows the crop ain't there and it is better to own corn-beans-wheat than Wall St. stocks. Germany is having rain interfear with their wheat harvest. The wheels are coming off the bus. Glowplug
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 23, 2011 18:12:55 GMT -5
Yield=Kernel Count x Population/100,000. When you do Kernel Counts, you need to take into account Kernel DEPTH! If it's Golden Harvest 9173 with big deep kernels and TW=58, you need to use 90,000. If it's Pioneer 34F97 with deep kernels, you need to use 85,000 cuz Pioneer TW will be 60-61-62. If it's Dekalb 59-88 with tiny kernels, you need to use 110,000. See, you lost a karma again. Nah, wasn't me. However, you're doing your kernel counts all wrong. You need to do it like a Pioneer sales rep. Walk in between two varieties and just grab an ear on each side and announce "we'll win this one". Otherwise, quit trying to use it to compare between companies and use it to estimate overall yield. I'm only trying to use it for year over year comparison.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 23, 2011 21:04:39 GMT -5
Bullish corn..............Glowplug
By Brian Ellsworth and Reese Ewing
RIO DE JANEIRO/SAO PAULO | Tue Aug 23, 2011 4:08pm EDT
RIO DE JANEIRO/SAO PAULO (Reuters) - When Brazil discovered huge offshore crude reserves four years ago, state oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA) sketched out plans to become a regional fuel exporter.
That plan has since been turned upside down.
Rapid domestic economic growth and rising fossil fuels use has turned it into a recurrent fuels importer, with occasional gasoline purchases in 2010 evolving into regular imports that may not cease until the end of the decade.
This leaves Brazil following the path of other emerging markets such as China, which upended the oil products markets ten years ago with explosive demand, and the Middle East, where rising incomes have spurred demand growth.
With few signs that Brazil in the short term will be able to boost supply of sugar cane ethanol, which supplies almost half the fuel for its cars, the country is shaping up to be a demand center that energy markets will watch more closely.
"In 2006 and 2007 the focus of our discussion was adding value to Brazilian petroleum and exporting products. We were going to have a surplus of products. But in 2010 the world changed," said Paulo Roberto Costa, Petrobras refining chief.
"The rule was that fuel demand grew slower than GDP, but this changed," he said, adding Petrobras will likely maintain its dependence on foreign fuel markets.
Petrobras says gasoline imports will reach 3.2 million barrels by the end of August, an amount almost equal to the total imported in 2010. It is likely to rise by the end of the year on the seasonal demand increase.
Supplies may tighten even further within the next five years following Petrobras' decision to postpone the 300,000 barrel per day Premium I refinery by two years as it focuses on more profitable exploration and production operations.
The company plans four new refineries. The first is slated to open by late 2012 or early 2013, though construction delays could push back its start-up. Even though all the refineries will provide fuel for the local market, Brazil still expects at least 5 percent of its domestic fuel to come from abroad.
The imports should have less impact on global fuel markets in the medium term, as a slowdown in Europe and the United States has eased tightness on oil products markets.
"Brazil's fuel demand growth is likely to slow down in the near future as economies around the world begin to slow," said Mark Routt, an energy industry consultant with KBC Advanced Technologies. "But the forecast for Brazil's growth remains very robust -- it's going to be a major feature of product markets going forward."
SUGAR BOOM SOURS ETHANOL
Complicating the picture is the dim outlook for new supply of sugar-cane ethanol used by Brazil's flex-fuel cars, which can run on any combination of the biofuel and gasoline. More than 90 percent of all autos sold in 2010 were flex-fuel models.
An 85 percent jump in the price of sugar over the last year has led millers to switch away from ethanol and toward the sweetener, pushing up prices at the pump just as policy makers struggle to cool inflation.
Brazil's cane output is about 120 million tonnes shy of the capacity of mills to crush the crop. The mills in turn are unable to produce enough ethanol to meet market demand.
"It will take about three to four years before we see new ethanol mills coming onstream again," said Plinio Nastari, president of sugar consultancy Datagro. "It will take that long before the cane crop catches up to current crushing capacity."
Both Petrobras and U.S.-based Bunge have promised to boost output recently with major investments, but this will probably take several years for this to meaningfully affect supplies.
While Brazilian officials for years have decried U.S. tariff barriers that protect less efficient corn-based ethanol, Brazil's fuel supplies are so tight that it has imported 400 million liters, equivalent to 2.5 million barrels, since the start of the 2011/2012 sugar cane season.
Datagro expects ethanol imports -- from the United States mainly -- to top 1.4 billion liters by the end of the season.
Many of Brazil's family-run ethanol businesses never recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, meaning that big milling groups with cash in their pockets see better returns from snatching up distressed rivals than from starting expensive greenfield projects from scratch.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 24, 2011 8:30:56 GMT -5
Overnights were down, but slightly. I'm thinking about lowering my personal guesstimate of the national corn yield. Worse than I thought. Glowplug
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Post by wctyilfarmer on Aug 24, 2011 8:41:29 GMT -5
Around here if you are 50% sold on corn you might be oversold, just saying. Who would have thought corn would hit $10.00.
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