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Post by eci on Aug 24, 2011 9:13:59 GMT -5
MN isn't as good. IA has issues in some areas. IL struggles. IN has ECI (see if he's paying attention). That rain should give you some great beans, hopefully Read more: allaboutfarming.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=talk8&action=display&thread=581&page=4#ixzz1VxHKksFaGlow that was some hopefull thinking ! rain poop'd out beform it got here last night ! peeler got an inch and a half ! glad they got some of it , Calling for Large hail, high winds and tornados here this afternoon !! Hot damn daddy !!!!!!!!!! As far as IN corn Pro tour lowered it to 143 for IN , , USDA had us at 150 . IL is not makeing a good showing the way it sounds . How high will the market go Who ever has the money to buy it , and how bad they need it , alot are takeing it on the chin already . Ken BTW glowplug did you see me and 3020 on ag-day this morning LMAO
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Post by 48 on Aug 24, 2011 10:59:50 GMT -5
Yield=Kernel Count x Population/100,000. When you do Kernel Counts, you need to take into account Kernel DEPTH! If it's Golden Harvest 9173 with big deep kernels and TW=58, you need to use 90,000. If it's Pioneer 34F97 with deep kernels, you need to use 85,000 cuz Pioneer TW will be 60-61-62. If it's Dekalb 59-88 with tiny kernels, you need to use 110,000. See, you lost a karma again. Nah, wasn't me. However, you're doing your kernel counts all wrong. You need to do it like a Pioneer sales rep. Walk in between two varieties and just grab an ear on each side and announce "we'll win this one". Otherwise, quit trying to use it to compare between companies and use it to estimate overall yield. I'm only trying to use it for year over year comparison. Dave: LMAO re Pioneer comment. I am not affiliated with Little P in any way. But, P has high TW...usually 60-62. GH is usually around 58. The whole point of doing yield estimates is to plan ahead vs available storage...what's already been FC/HTA...what's left to market etc. It takes years of experience to correlate Estimated Yields with what the properly calibrated yield monitor on the combine says...and you can't calibrate the monitor without a good idea of TW of hybrid being combined...and final scale weight tickets...whether at your own bins, coop, end user...feedlot, ethanol plant, etc. Sooo...I strongly disagree with your comment vs companies. 100,000 is based on a standard kernal at TW=56. If you have GH with big deep kernels and TW=58, you should be using 90,000. If you have Pioneer with big deep kernels and TW=60+, you should be using 85,000. If you have Dekalb with short kernels and TW=56, you should be using 110,000.
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Post by 48 on Aug 24, 2011 11:15:16 GMT -5
Around here if you are 50% sold on corn you might be oversold, just saying. Who would have thought corn would hit $10.00. wctyil: I ass u me that your alias means a west county in IL. By now you should have a pretty good idea what your yield will be. That's why I stress doing real yield estimates as accurately as possible. When I say you never FC/HTA more than 50% of what you think you can raise, I mean back in the winter/spring when you haven't even planted it yet. As far as $10 goes, nobody knows. Personally, I think the chance is slim to none, and Slim left town. But, who knows? Nobody! That's what scale up selling is all about. I usually don't advocate marketing this early. But, from a price- demand rationing stand point, the market has already given a pretty good indication that 7 is tops for corn and 14 for SB. When I came here CN2=764, and I know you could sell a @cn2 C900 for 42 cuz I did it before I came here. 764+42=806-Basis. Start doing that on a scale up using...say 5-10%. If corn keeps going up, keep scaling up. And...as my friend jabber says...this advice is worth exactly what you paid for it...NOTHING! lol. Good luck.
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Post by Grainbelt on Aug 24, 2011 11:26:05 GMT -5
48,
Are you saying to sell CN2 @ 7.640 AND to sell a CN2 900C?
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Post by 48 on Aug 24, 2011 13:23:42 GMT -5
48, Are you saying to sell CN2 @ 7.640 AND to sell a CN2 900C? Hi Grainbelt: You have to look at my marketing philosophy that I posted previously to keep this in context. I am not saying to short CN2 futures and sell @cn2 C900. I'm saying HTA using Jul 2012 at 764 and set basis...hopefully at a better level next spring when you deliver. In addition sell @cn2 C900 for 42. This can be a pure spec...or it can pay for 10 mo of commercial storage...or it can help offset local basis. Soooo....you have 764 HTA + 42 from the Call=806-Basis. If CN2 keeps going up, HTA more and Sell more C900. Just be mindful that if C900 expires one tick in the money, you will be exercised into a short futures position at 900. As time progresses, if that looks likely, and you are not comfortable with that, simply offset it. What I like about selling options, is that you are selling time. Everyday that goes by is working for you. When you buy options, the Time Value is evaporating every day.
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Post by 48 on Aug 24, 2011 13:30:22 GMT -5
BTW, there is Margin associated with selling options, but it is only about half of futures.
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Post by wctyilfarmer on Aug 24, 2011 20:07:43 GMT -5
we wont be flooding the market here. 85 bu max. Attachments:
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Post by glowplug on Aug 25, 2011 8:48:45 GMT -5
Well folks, George Soros has bought up grain marketing facilities and he's buying land. Just added Soros to the same list as Jane Fonda, Tom Hayden, John F'n Kerry for gravesite irrigation. Glowplug
What asset has appreciated more than any asset since the year 2000?
Answer: Farmland. 1,200%
Food prices are skyrocketing all across the globe, and there's no end in sight. The United Nations says food inflation is currently at 30% a year, and the fast-eroding value of the dollar is causing food prices to appear even higher in contrast to a weakening currency. As the dollar drops in value due to runaway money printing at the Federal Reserve, the cost to import foods from other nations looks to double in just the next two years — and possibly every two years thereafter.
That's probably why investors around the globe are flocking to farmland as the new growth industry. Investors are pouring into farmland in the U.S. and parts of Europe, Latin America and Africa as global food prices soar. A fund controlled by George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, owns 23.4 percent of a South American farmland venture Adecoagro. Commodities are still the best play for the long term and legendary investor guru Jim Rogers confessed that he has been buying farmland himself. People are still going to eat. Mother Nature has taken her wrath out on the world as of late to such an extent that farmers cannot get loans for fertilizers right now without putting their land up as collateral and with too little rain or too much rain the farmland that has been in a family for generations could be wiped away in a trick of fate. Therefore the supplies of food are going to continue to be under pressure. This leads me to conclude that agriculture is going to be one of the greatest industries in the next 20 years, 30 years. That's because demand for food is accelerating even as radical climate changes, a loss of fossil water supplies, and the failure of genetically engineered crops is actually reducing food yields around the globe. Ceres Partners, which invests in farmland, has produced astonishing 16% annual returns since its launch in 2008. And this is during a depressed economy when most other industries are showing losses.
Ceres partners have investment opportunities for dairy, green house vegetable operations, beef cattle and rice plantations. Ceres reported that most commodity exporting countries of South America are facing highly favorable conditions, particularly those with stronger fundamentals who have easiest access to external financing and stand to benefit the most from low global interest rates. Foreign direct investment in the economies of the region increased almost 20% during 2010 compared to the same period a year ago. The region's economy expanded 6% in 2010 and according to ECLAC´s latest report; South America will grow 5.1% in 2011. In terms of countries, the fastest growing this year will be Argentina (8.3%), Peru (7.1%). Uruguay (6.8%), Ecuador (6.4%), Chile (6.3%), Paraguay (5.7%) followed by Colombia (5.3%), Venezuela (4.5%) and Brazil (4%). For its soils and weather conditions, abundance of natural resources, good infrastructure and the unique possibility of acquiring large extension of productive farmland; South America is indeed worldwide considered a top place to buy, lease and manage agricultural lands for profit. The region accounts for 59% of global exports of oil seeds, 11% of grains and 37% of meat; with Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay being among the top 10 food exporters.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 25, 2011 9:09:50 GMT -5
Corn futures are called 4 to 5 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 4 1/2 to 5 cents lower. The market is pulling back slightly after the December contract posted new highs on Wednesday. The decline in gold and ideas that high prices may be slowing export demand are bearish factors. USDA will release a new weekly export sales report this morning. But losses will be limited by declining production ideas amid continued dry weather in parts of the central Corn Belt.
Soybean futures are called 6 to 7 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 6 1/2 to 7 cents lower. The soybean market has moved to the very high end of its trading range and although November moved above $14 there was little follow-through to the upside. So light profit-taking, weakness in gold and ideas that export demand has slowed at current prices are expected to weigh on futures. However, losses are likely to be limited by declining production estimates. Crop condition ratings are falling and dry weather is hurting yield potential in parts of the central Midwest.
Wheat futures are called 4 to 5 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 4 to 5 1/4 cents lower at the CBOT, 4 1/4 to 5 cents lower at the KCBT and 9 cents lower at the MGE. The MGE sold-off yesterday on profit-taking from the recent rally and some follow-through selling is expected this morning. The larger than expected wheat crop in Canada reported yesterday by Stats Canada helped trigger the weakness. But concern about U.S. spring wheat yields and some weakness in the dollar overnight should limit losses. The weekly export sales report due out this morning is expected to show strong sales and shipments.
Cattle futures are called steady to mixed. Cash trade developed yesterday at mostly $113, down $1 from the previous week. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday with choice cuts up 51 cents and select cutouts down 47 cents. December and February contracts could come under some pressure from the large placements reported for July in the Cattle on Feed report.
Lean hog futures are called mixed this morning. Cash fundamentals have turned weaker as pork cutouts were down $1.53 on Wednesday and hog supplies are expected to increase seasonally. Cash trade was down about $1.50 on a national average yesterday. However, the discount of futures to cash currently built into the market and ideas of strong export demand could provide some support for the futures market.
Cotton futures are trading higher this morning. Futures settled lower on Wednesday, but light support is coming from concern that Hurricane Iren could hurt some of the cotton crops in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. At 6:35 am CT, December cotton was 76 points higher.
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Post by 48 on Aug 25, 2011 11:35:49 GMT -5
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Post by 48 on Aug 25, 2011 11:36:45 GMT -5
When I copied about line, why does it add AAF link?
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Post by 48 on Aug 25, 2011 11:37:55 GMT -5
It also said: "... good infrastructure ..." BS
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Post by 48 on Aug 25, 2011 11:57:53 GMT -5
The following comments are based on a DTN 3 mo Pit Chart of CN2 which is the month you should use to market NC...NOT CZ1:
1. Made a seasonal summer low on Jul 1=606'4. Pretty close to "July 4th Low." 2. It rose and went into a Horizontal Trading Range CHANNEL: 715-690=25. Upside channel objective=715+25=740 which was achieved a long time ago. 3. It made a small Bull Flag with the Flag Pole at 736 and the nearby low at 690. Bull Flags occur at the half way point in a rising market. 736-690=46. 736+46=782 vs recent new LOC HI=766. This may have been close enough to satisfy the objective, or we may have another 16 to go. 4. It is in a rising triangle with a Base=736-686=50. Upside objective=752+50=802. Downside objective=740-50=690...which BTW there is good support at this level. Triangle breakouts occur at 1/2-3/4, and right on cue it broke to the upside. You need two consecutive closes above TTL=Top Trend Line to confirm the breakout, and this happened. 5. SS and MACD are topping out, but SS should have turned down in the overnight. 6. So far the market is ignoring PF Crop Tour showing reduced yields. 7. CIS says that when USDA reports below trend line yield in Aug, in 7 of 8 years, final yields were higher.
Soooo....is it going to 802 or 690??? Nobody knows! But, I told you yesterday interday when it was hitting a new Life Of Contract High what I would do.
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Post by 48 on Aug 25, 2011 12:36:25 GMT -5
A long time ago over on AW, I said HRS and HRW were going to do a moonshot cuz of the drought in TX, OK, S and W KS, and E CO and the wet/delayed/prevented planting in ND and MT. Weeellll, we had a big SRW crop and Russia is selling W for $40/MT below EU and US cuz they have no where to store NC. Buuutttt...erroneous Wheat Quality Council Tour of spring wheat didn't help either. lol.
Covering the Basis
North Dakota Wheat Tour Results Off the Mark
Bob Bailey DTN Basis and Feedstuffs Analyst
Bio | Email
Wed Aug 24, 2011 03:44 PM CDT
I recently received an email from a subscriber asking what was in the coolers that participants of the North Dakota wheat tour had with them. What the questioner was really asking is how could the tour misjudge the crop by as much as they did? This individual felt that southern North Dakota from I-94 south to the South Dakota border and across the entire southern part of the state would not average more than 25 bushels per acre, which would comprise about 40% of the North Dakota total. I am not sure how much of the total North Dakota crop is grown in that area of the state, but I can understand the subscriber's pain.
Dave Miller inspects a kernel of spring wheat during the 2011 spring wheat tour. Some are questioning the estimates that came out of that tour. (DTN photo by Katie Micik)
The first thing we have to remember is the wheat tour took place in the last week of July and since then there has been a lot of weather events, mainly rain and cooler temperatures, that have affected crop potential. Most everyone knows that rain on ripe wheat is not a good thing. It takes away test weight and can affect quality. The weather this crop year has also been conducive to an increase in diseases, primarily scab.
Another issue is who goes on the wheat tour. Many of the participants are reporters from various news services and representative from various grain interests who may have never set foot in a wheat field before. They get some quick instructions on how to measure a field and estimate yield and are sent out on the tour. Now, the guides on the tour are the experts and I am sure they are helping and teaching the participants exactly what to look for on the fly, so to speak. So you have to ask yourself how valid are crop tours and do they provide any additional information to the trade that is not already known? I am sure this is a debatable issue as for some it provides a first-hand look at the crop, while for others it is just another estimate.
Looking back, the results of the Wheat Quality Council hard red spring wheat and durum tour that wrapped up July 28 found a lower overall average yield compared to the previous year. The average hard red spring wheat yield was 41.5 bushels per acre compared to 46 bpa last year. The tour covered North Dakota, parts of western Minnesota and northern South Dakota. Participants scouted 419 fields with 369 of them being hard red spring wheat, 31 durum wheat and 19 hard red winter wheat.
Participants in the tour reported many unplanted acres in the northwest and north central parts of the state and some disease pressure (primarily scab) in the eastern part of the state. The overall crop was behind the average growth pace with fields two to six weeks away from harvest.
The latest USDA crop report issued Aug. 11 showed spring wheat production to be 475 million bushels with a total supply of 690 mb due to a large carryover from the previous year. Total usage was set at 547 mb, which left ending stocks 143 mb down 30 mb from the July estimate.
Since the report there has been an issue about acres planted to spring wheat. USDA's Farm Service Agency came out with a report that stated total spring wheat acres planted were down nearly 1 million acres to 11.7 ma from what USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service used in the USDA crop report. The difference between the two is FSA numbers are from farmers enrolled in federal farm programs, while NASS numbers are a sample of all growers. All this tells me is that we really don't know how many acres are planted to spring wheat and it is hard to make estimates without that knowledge.
In the end it doesn't matter how many acres were planted, but how many bushels were produced and that won't be known until harvest is complete. The latest crop progress report for spring wheat showed 29% of the U.S. spring wheat crop is now harvested, up from 13% last week and still below the average of 56%. Harvest in South Dakota is 86% complete, followed by Minnesota at 54%, North Dakota at 21% and Montana at 11%.
Yield reports are all over the map with some producers getting yields less than 20 bpa and some getting yields close to 60 bpa. However, most of the reported yields are in the 25 to 40 bpa range and below producers' expectations. So what does all this mean for basis and cash prices? Hopefully it means stronger basis levels and higher cash prices, but that is not what we are seeing now. Basis levels lately have been on the decline, while futures prices are moving higher. Typically at harvest time futures and basis levels drop on pressure from large amounts of grain moving into marketing channels at one time. That is not happening in spring wheat this year because of the size and condition of the crop. There is a lot more outside interest in buying futures due to the crop situation, while demand remains lackluster.
Part of the reason demand is slack is because of high protein levels found in the 2011 HRW crop. Domestic mills are switching some of their mill grind which had been largely low to mid protein spring wheat with hard red winter wheat, due to cheaper protein premiums and, in part, more predictable rail logistics. However, even with the higher protein levels in the 2011 HRW crop, domestic mills will still look to use spring wheat in blends because of historically higher absorption and greater dough strength of HRS wheat and the smaller kernel size on the 2011 HRW crop, which has reduced flour yields.
On the export front, expectations of a rebound in Canadian and Australian crop quality are expected to pressure U.S. market share in parts of Asia and Europe. In Central and South America, the higher protein levels in HRW may cut into some of last year's HRS demand in that region. At present, export demand is projected at 270 million bushels, but depending on the final outcome of the crop it is becoming more likely the exports will be lowered.
Tighter stocks and lower quality wheat will cause offering prices to rise, keeping the U.S. from being competitive in the world market.
Trade expectations are for a small crop with strong demand that will push cash prices and basis levels to new heights. But don't get too excited. There is an old adage I am sure most have heard before: A short crop has a long tail. I will save that topic for another day after harvest is complete.
Bob Bailey can be contacted at bob.bailey@telventdtn.com
(CZ/ES)
© Copyright 2011 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.
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Post by 48 on Aug 25, 2011 16:57:10 GMT -5
farmindustrynews.com/business/nass-predicts-2011-corn-crop-4-2010This is a handy little graphic. Each day as PF releases state results from their tour, compare it to this graphic. BUT...remember...the Market trades USDA...right or wrong...NOT PF! Also, remember the CIS study that shows that in 7 of 8 years that USDA showed yields below trend line in Aug, the final yield was HIGHER.
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