|
Post by glowplug on Aug 4, 2011 7:36:53 GMT -5
Guys-gals, let's have some marketing discussion. AAF is a work in progress. Dive in, have an opinion. Most of us are wrong some of the time in hedging or not hedging. But there's some great thinkers who sometimes see patterns, events, etc. that can make us all move up to drinking a better grade of beer. Glowplug
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are called 10 to 11 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 10 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents lower. A change in the weather pattern and outside markets are weighing on futures trade. Moderating temperatures and some rain moving across the southern parts of the Midwest should help boost crop conditions even though yield potential has already been lost. Weather forecasts call for generally favorable crop weather for the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. A sharp rally in the dollar index and weakness in Dow Jones futures and crude oil are also pressuring prices.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are called 14 to 15 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 14 to 14 3/4 cents lower. Forecasts for improved crop weather and outside market are pressuring prices in overnight trade. Moderating temperatures and chances of rainfall in the Midwest should help boost crop condition ratings over the next couple of weeks. In addition, the dollar index is up sharply while Dow Jones futures and crude oil are lower. Export demand has been sluggish, which is expected to be confirmed in the Weekly Export Sales report this morning.
Wheat: Wheat futures are called 10 to 13 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 12 1/2 to 13 cents lower at the CBOT, 9 1/2 to 10 1/4 cents lower at the KCBT and 8 to 10 1/2 cents lower at the MGE. The sharp rally in the dollar and sell-off in Dow Jones futures have commodity markets on the defensive. A rising dollar could further hurt the competitiveness of U.S. wheat on the global market. The Weekly Export Sales report due out this morning is expected to show slow export sales.
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Aug 5, 2011 7:33:52 GMT -5
Perhaps as some flee the stock market, there may be a move into grains? Dunno. Glowplug
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are called 6 to 7 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 6 3/4 to 7 cents lower. A change in the weather pattern that should benefit the corn crop and concern about the global economy is weighing on futures. Temperatures in the Corn Belt have moderated and there are improved chances of rain. The outlook for the next couple of weeks is generally crop friendly. The sharp losses in the stock market and gains in the dollar were bearish on Thursday, but losses in corn could be limited if financial markets stabilize.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are called 10 to 11 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 10 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents lower. Generally favorable weather for crop production in the Midwest for the next couple of weeks is weighing on the market. August weather is critical for soybean yields and condition ratings should improve if forecasts verify. The sharp rally in the dollar and weakness in the stock market were bearish factors yesterday. But losses could be limited today if financial markets can stabilize.
Wheat: Wheat futures are called 6 to 9 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 8 to 9 1/2 cents lower at the CBOT, 6 cents lower at the KCBT and 9 1/2 cents lower at the MGE. Follow-through selling is weighing on futures overnight. The sharp rally in the dollar and weakness in corn pressured wheat trade. Export demand remains a concern as Russia and other countries are pricing wheat below U.S. prices. However, if outside markets can stabilize, wheat futures could rebound from recent losses on short-covering ahead of the weekend.
|
|
|
Post by looter on Aug 5, 2011 11:59:25 GMT -5
Happy I contracted half of Pa's wheat crop last spring at $9 off the combine. The other hLf I will make up my mind on next Weds. I assume by then the yield on the HRS wheat crop should be discovered to an adequate degree?? If we move into a bull market on wheat then, we'll hold. If instead theis deflation thing looks like it has legs then its gone.
We REALLY fricked out by dodging the frost and heat that wrecked havoc on the wheat 50 miles north, and we wound up with an average cost of $5.13/bu into the HRW wheat. I factor living costs and land costs and custom rates and general overhead into my costs.
|
|
|
Post by looter on Aug 5, 2011 12:01:32 GMT -5
This means that next Thursday wheat will skyrocketing. That's ok. There's always next year...
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Aug 9, 2011 8:43:30 GMT -5
I'm actually impressed that corn and bean prices have stood up like they have with Wall St. serious plummet.
Traders already know there will not be a bin buster yield this fall. And eventually feed wheat will be ate up, so it will be back to pricey corn.
Glowplug
|
|
|
Post by rfarmgirl on Aug 9, 2011 10:25:10 GMT -5
There will NOT be a bin buster in my neck of the woods. Too much heat and not enough rain did some serious yield reduction. Some corn tipped back up to 5 or 6 inches and beans who knows, need some substantial rain soon to help fill pods. Corn looks pretty decent from the road till ya get out in it and pull a few ears.
|
|
|
Post by Hobbyfarmer on Aug 9, 2011 10:52:06 GMT -5
Last week we started out with a +30 basis on cash corn and now have a +10 so not only got the slide in prices also got the 20cent loss in basis. Along with all the replant corn and some of the first corn layed over in a high straight line wind a few nights ago.
|
|
|
Post by looter on Aug 10, 2011 7:26:18 GMT -5
Well its the day I said I'd decide whether or not to hang onto the rest of our wheat. Crop report due out tomorow.
I'm sorta on the front line of HRS harvest, and reports keep getting worse. 75% confident that prices work north from here. If tomorrow's report is bearish gonna just pull the trigger and worry about wheat price for the 2012 crop.
|
|
|
Post by looter on Aug 10, 2011 7:35:14 GMT -5
Happy I contracted half of Pa's wheat crop last spring at $9 off the combine. The other hLf I will make up my mind on next Weds. I assume by then the yield on the HRS wheat crop should be discovered to an adequate degree?? If we move into a bull market on wheat then, we'll hold. If instead theis deflation thing looks like it has legs then its gone. We REALLY fricked out by dodging the frost and heat that wrecked havoc on the wheat 50 miles north, and we wound up with an average cost of $5.13/bu into the HRW wheat. I factor living costs and land costs and custom rates and general overhead into my costs. What I meant above was that i intended to follow whatever red.d occurred today. If today's market was lower, we were gonna sell. If it it rises, we hold. My reasoning is that the HRS yields will finally start to become a "KNOWN". They can't be priced into the market as long as they remain a mystery. Every day is an eternity as harvest moves north. The amount of new information is growing exponentially. I really doubt tomorrow's report will be important relative to harvest data. In fact, I see the trade paying less and less attention to the USDA. As they lose credibility, their ability to move markets will naturally diminish over time. Its either that or they release accurate data.
|
|
|
Post by Hobbyfarmer on Aug 10, 2011 7:44:05 GMT -5
Due to the mnature of the reports it is more of a guess and out of date history in the making. The markets showed good resiliance yesterday and strong proformance in the overnight's. I don't see the harvest news getting any better as it moves north. There is some good moisture in Kansas for fall plantings in some drought areas but that is next year. In the mean time wheat in the bin does not look like a bad thing in the next few months to me.
I am not in the wheat business at this time and this opinion should be worth what you paid for it.
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Aug 10, 2011 11:31:43 GMT -5
Midday Report Corn: Corn futures are trading higher at midday. Positioning ahead of the USDA reports due out on Thursday morning is supporting the market. Traders are looking for USDA report the size of the crop at 13.08 billion bushels, which would be down 2.9% from the July estimate due to the hot and dry weather last month. Gains are being limited by sharp losses in the stock market and crude oil futures. September is 3 3/4 cents higher at $6.82 and December is 3 1/2 cents higher at $6.92.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are slightly lower at midsession. Sharp losses in the stock market and crude oil are weighing lightly on futures although losses are being limited by positioning ahead of the USDA reports due out on Thursday morning. Improved crop weather this week and non-threatening forecasts are also weighing on futures. Traders are looking for USDA to lower their crop estimate to 3.17 billion bushels, down 1.6% from the July estimate. September is 1/2 of a cent lower at $12.92 3/4 and November is 1 cent lower at $12.98 3/4.
Wheat: Wheat futures are solidly higher at midday. Position evening ahead of the USDA reports due out on Thursday morning are supporting the market. Some strength came from news that the Federal Reserve plans to leave interest rates near zero for the next two year. USDA is expected to peg the wheat crop at a four year low. However, the sharp decline in the stock market and the rebound in the dollar index from losses overnight are limiting further gains. CBOT September is 11 1/2 cents higher at $6.83 1/4, KCBT September is 10 cents higher at $7.73 and MGE September is 8 3/4 cents higher at $8.25 1/2.
|
|
|
Post by looter on Aug 11, 2011 5:55:17 GMT -5
It's 5 am and I just got done swimming in my moat around the Doom Castle. Bored as frick. The stupid crop report is coming out. I have a positive gut on wheat regardless of what it says.
Demand for wheat seed in SD is an all time low. After 4 years in a row of 80 bu continuous crop HRW, most guys are running half that. Meanwhile the row crop is stellar. The one thing you can always count on a farmer to do is what he wished he had done the year before. Right now everybody wishes they had more corn in....
|
|
|
Post by ses on Aug 11, 2011 7:21:14 GMT -5
We went to Dodge City yesterday afternoon. I wasn't quite like the trip to Garden City a few days agowhere things look decent, kinda sort of. Those boys around Dodge are dryer than dry. Apparently they haven't been getting what they have been just west a few miles. The only green is some milo that hasn't quite finished dying. Looks like the middle of winter down there. I don't know what happened to all of the cows but there aren't many around. I still think the wheat belt is in a lot of trouble. Probably going to be a huge uptick in acres planted thanks to high crop ins. guarantees but unless it changes pretty soon it's going to be a huge disaster. I don't see a lot of down side in wheat.
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 7:57:00 GMT -5
From what I learned in Debuque over the weekend, corn will be in short supply. That high heat at pollination took a toll.
We're okay in WI but there's a high % of the corn crop planted late. An early frost, a late Aug. drought, are still possibilities. Glowplug
|
|
|
Post by linsal on Aug 11, 2011 8:26:03 GMT -5
From what I learned in Debuque over the weekend, corn will be in short supply. That high heat at pollination took a toll. We're okay in WI but there's a high % of the corn crop planted late. An early frost, a late Aug. drought, are still possibilities. Glowplug Corn in my little corner of SW Wisconsin is pretty much getting gassed, even if it's on heavier soils. Most of the rains have either gone north or south of us. Got some sweetcorrn from a neighbor a couple of days ago...I've never seen such puny kernels...I dunno if that's any sort of indicator for field corn, but it doesn't look good to me. Corn on lighter soiler is a really light green right now.
|
|