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Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 8:41:47 GMT -5
Yup, there are areas that could use a nice soaking rain. Not the case here. Do keep in mind that certain corn variety genetics don't have a deep green tendency. Much of the Monsanto affiliated line up tend lighter green but vastly more extensive root systems than the greener appearing Pioneer stuff. Give me better roots, anytime.
That lighter green appearance doesn't impact yield (unless you are short N, which early season rains did leech out much of). A close inspection of your leaves is in order.
Glowplug
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Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 12:50:57 GMT -5
My take is this price rally will go on a couple days. A Thursday report like this should be Friday bullish. Beyond that, the crystal ball is cloudy. Glowplug
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Post by acfarmer on Aug 11, 2011 18:18:54 GMT -5
My take is this price rally will go on a couple days. A Thursday report like this should be Friday bullish. Beyond that, the crystal ball is cloudy. Glowplug I aint getting too concerned about the markets untill January. I think thats when it will take off like a rocket when they find we didnt raise a huge crop. I have sold a tenth of my new crop corn in the 6.50 range and a few beans in the high 12s. I have a gut feeling that will be the low for me.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 18:52:35 GMT -5
If it was just about the supply-demand fundamentals, the currect short crop fetching higher prices would be no-brainer.
But outside factors like obamagheddon, the PIIGS financial woes, Red China-Brazil, oil, gold, inflation, etc., are in the mix.
Glowplug
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Post by acfarmer on Aug 11, 2011 19:13:38 GMT -5
Do you really think the outside influences are going to hinder the price if the crop is really short?
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Post by ses on Aug 11, 2011 19:41:14 GMT -5
This crop is tight only if ethanol remains in the picture. If they remove the mandate and let ethanol stand on it's own two feet that might influence demand. Especially if crude takes a dump. Crude will probably take a dump if the economy collapses. Lots of things tied together.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 22:19:36 GMT -5
A declining oil price can be a mixed bag. Yeah, I want much cheaper diesel. But ethanol has to compete with gasoline to a point. Higher priced corn and lower oil are hell on ethanol plant margins.
Ending the Blenders' Credit means the oil refinery has to pass along that added cost to the consumer. High priced gas means less discretionary consumer spending money.
Lots of vicious circles out there. Glowplug
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Post by linsal on Aug 12, 2011 7:47:03 GMT -5
With crude oil off roughly $10 per barrel in recent weeks (and assuming corn and oil hold at current levels), what has that done to ethanol plant margins? Any general ideas? www.oil-price.net/
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Post by glowplug on Aug 15, 2011 8:45:31 GMT -5
Overnight grain trades were up. Should be another plus day here. End users know they'd better lock up their needs now because the crop ain't there. Glowplug
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Post by glowplug on Aug 15, 2011 21:34:32 GMT -5
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (DTN) -- If you planted Syngenta's new Agrisure Viptera hybrids this year, don't plan on delivering that grain to a Bunge or Continental (CGB) grain facility: they won't accept it. Bunge officials told DTN their facilities are prepared to test grain for the new insecticidal trait and will reject loads when it is detected. CGB declined to comment for this story, but is likely not to take the grain either. This sign, posted at Bunge grain-handling facilities, alerts growers to non-acceptance of Viptera corn and Plenish soybeans. Both Bunge and CGB's decision to not accept delivery of Agrisure Viptera, which contains MIR162 trait for protection from a variety of insects, is because the trait has not yet been approved for export to China. According to manager Jason Hall at Bunge's river terminal in Louisiana, Mo., the company plans to not accept Viptera grain because all Bunge facilities are integrated into the export market. Other grain companies may follow suit, causing grain experts to advise that any growers planting Viptera hybrids, or those within cross-pollination distance of neighboring fields, to check with grain buyers ahead of harvest. Farmers should also contact local ethanol plants where they plan delivery in case the plant markets DDGs internationally. The Agrisure Viptera trait, launched for the 2011 planting season, is sold in two trait stacks with its Agrisure 3000GT triple stacks -- known as Agrisure Viptera 3111 and 3110. All three Syngenta brands -- NK, Golden Harvest and Garst -- sold and gave away trial quantities of about 70 different hybrids containing Viptera, according to the company. All hybrids that contain Viptera are designated with either 3111 or 3110 as the last four numbers of the name. Syngenta would not release total potential acreage numbers for the seed. DTN did confirm with Syngenta that a limited amount of Viptera-labeled seed was sold by smaller seed brands who acquired genetic lines through Syngenta's Greenleaf business. To inform farmers regarding their non-acceptance policy, both CGB and Bunge have posted signs at their grain facilities. DTN received an emailed photo of the sign posted at the Bunge terminal (see photo). It states that Bunge is currently unable to accept delivery of Agrisure Viptera and Pioneer Plenish soybeans for the 2011/2012 growing season. Farmers in this area of northeast Missouri are not happy with Syngenta, as many are scrambling to identify local places to go with their grain as harvest nears. DTN/The Progressive Farmer customers who contacted the news office were frustrated because they felt the issue was kept under wraps for so long. The grain acceptance information should have been known before they planted the hybrids, one said. Paul Minehart, head of corporate communications for Syngenta, said the company is working daily with the grain trade to determine the best approach to address this issue. "We're in the process of developing customer communications to ensure that growers are kept apprised of what's going on. The key thing right now is for growers to contact their usual grain handlers. Many of them are going to accept Viptera," he added. Minehart told DTN that Viptera has received all international regulatory approvals except for import into China. "China was not a key export country when we began the approval process, and has just come on this year as a major importer of grain. We applied for Chinese regulatory approval in March of 2010, and we expect approval to occur in the first quarter of 2012." Bunge and CGB may not be alone in not accepting any grain that does not have full international regulatory approval. Companies that export to China are taking a hard look at acceptance or denial of the grain due to the country's zero tolerance policy toward GEOs (genetically engineered organisms). "Regarding the Viptera situation, obviously every grain company selling corn into the Chinese market is evaluating the situation," says Randy Gordon, Communications and government relations manager for the National Grain & Feed Association (NGFA). "We don't believe Bunge and CGB will be the only companies that are planning not to take Viptera grain." Syngenta's Minehart confirmed to DTN that Cargill and CHS will be accepting grain as long as growers alert the facility when they deliver a load that contains Viptera. DTN has yet to confirm decisions by other grain companies, but will provide updates as available. Gordon said that the North American Grain Export Association (NAGEA) was very explicit with Syngenta about China. "Back in August of 2010, NAGEA stressed the importance of getting Chinese regulatory approval before commercial launch of Viptera. Today, my understanding is that there are 250 million bushels of Viptera corn being produced this year," Gordon said. The trait is believed to be planted primarily in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Nebraska, with lesser quantities in other states, according to the July 14 issue of the NGFA Newsletter. Nathan Fields, director of biotechnology and economic analysis for the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), told DTN that Syngenta was in compliance with the biotech industry and all commercialization policies prior to the product's full commercial launch. "From our perspective, they launched the product in good faith." Fields said they recognize the anxiety that this mid-season policy shift by the grain trade has caused growers and their marketing plans. "The biggest variable was that nobody knew of the potential for the China export market." One of the numerous challenges that growers could face with Viptera, according to farmers who talked to DTN, is trying to confine and identify small portions of fields that contain the hybrids. Many growers throughout the Midwest received a few bags as a free trial, part of a large and successful marketing campaign by Syngenta. Growers with delivery contracts with Bunge or CGB could have issues trying to fulfill them. For farmers who have multiple landlords, this issue could make it difficult to keep sales tickets straight for reporting purposes. Another potential nightmare is when a load is rejected and growers must find an on-farm bin to segregate the crop. Gordon, with the NGFA, said a larger concern among some grain companies who serve the Chinese market is the possibility for cross contamination from pollen drift or grain handling -- due to China's zero-tolerance policy on unapproved GE traits. "We're aware that Syngenta, to its credit, is having ongoing discussions with the Chinese government, trying to resolve the situation as quickly as possible. But each company needs to evaluate their business and market to decide what best serves its needs," he said. NCGA's Fields said the association is working diligently with all parties to compile comprehensive information that farmers across the Midwest and South will need before harvest. "We'll undertake several forms of communications with growers, and we plan to have a resource on the website to let growers know the current policies of all the major exporters. Right now, growers should double check on their contract commitments to make sure they can be filled and work out solutions where needed, before they are sitting in line trying to dump grain," Fields said. "We see an end in sight if China stays on their usual regulatory path, which would allow Viptera to be approved for export in early 2012," Fields said. "We just need to take care of the current risk window before that approval happens." Regarding the listing of Pioneer's Plenish soybeans by Bunge: it is basically a formality based on the usual practice of listing any product that does not have full global approval, according to Amanda Rinehart, marketing communication manager for Pioneer. "For 2011, this product is strictly contracted on very limited acres in Michigan and Ohio, working with growers who are use to handling IP (identity-preserved) crops under strict stewardship management practices. We don't have a contract with Bunge, and our growers are only delivering to Zeeland Farm Services in Zeeland, Mich., or storing the grains on-farm until crushing plans are finalized upon 2012 regulatory approval."
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Post by glowplug on Aug 16, 2011 8:51:12 GMT -5
Appears we're in for a Turn Around Tuesday today. Traders just want movement, up or down, to make money. Fundamentals won't matter much until we get closer to harvest. Glowplug
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 16, 2011 10:07:14 GMT -5
Traders just want movement, up or down, to make money. Glowplug My statement for many years. Farmers can take advantage too, but often will not. AND hedgers. Market volatility creates value in out of the money options too. The "threat" of movement gives those out of the money options value.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 17, 2011 7:43:29 GMT -5
Watch crude oil, guys. It's headed back to $100 range. And it will get there sooner than later. Glowplug
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are called steady to mixed. Overnight trade at 6:45 was steady to 1/4 of a cent lower. The December contract was able to rally to a new high on Tuesday. Little fresh fundamental news is expected today, which could lead to choppy trade today. Some support could come from dry conditions in parts of the central Corn Belt. Outside markets could also help limit losses as crude oil was higher overnight while the dollar index was lower.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are called 1 to 2 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower. The soybean market remains stuck in the middle of its trading range over the past several months. USDA lowered production estimate was supportive, but moderate temperatures and some rain has helped limit stress on the crop. However, some areas in the central Midwest remain dry. Futures were drifting lower overnight, but losses should be limited by outside markets. Crude oil was higher and the dollar index lower overnight.
Wheat: Wheat futures are called steady to mixed. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 2 to 2 1/2 cents higher at the CBOT, 1/4 of a cent higher at the KCBT and 2 1/2 cents lower at the MGE. Some consolidation trade is expected today after the solid gains on Tuesday. Reports of lower-than-expected spring wheat yields pushed the MGE higher and winter wheat markets were pulled higher. However, buying interest was limited overnight as the global supply/demand outlook is bearish. Export competition is expected to remains strong.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 18, 2011 8:30:15 GMT -5
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are called 7 to 8 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 6 3/4 to 8 cents lower. After hitting new highs in the December contract on Wednesday, profit-taking is weighing on futures overnight. Moderate temperatures and chances of rain in the Corn Belt should benefit the corn crop. Outside markets could also pressure trade. Weakness in Dow Jones futures and crude oil and strength in the dollar overnight will be bearish influences.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are called 9 to 10 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 9 1/4 to 10 1/2 cents lower. The market continues to trade in it recent trading range roughly from $13n to $14. After strength the past few days, the market is being pressured overnight by some profit-taking. Weather forecasts are slightly bearish as moderate temperatures and chances of rain in the Midwest could help crop conditions. Outside markets were bearish overnight as Dow Jones futures and crude oil were lower while the dollar index was higher.
Wheat: Wheat futures are called 10 to 15 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 14 1/4 to 15 cents lower at the CBOT, 14 1/4 to 14 1/2 cents lower at the KCBT and 9 to 11 1/2 cents lower at the MGE. After trading higher the past seven sessions, wheat futures are setting back in overnight trade. Bearish global supply/demand fundamentals and outside markets are weighing on futures trade. Strength in the dollar and weakness in Dow Jones futures overnight is pressure most commodity markets. Losses are expected to be limited by concern about the decline in spring wheat production.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 18, 2011 8:37:22 GMT -5
I'm looking for an early harvest low. I still don't think the market has fully realized the problems with this crop. They won't fully consider it until the combines start rolling in the southern fringes of the corn belt.
Take a look at the drought maps. When the combines roll (or don't) in those areas, some of the short traders will encounter the pucker factor firsthand.
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