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Post by looter on Aug 15, 2011 9:31:31 GMT -5
For those of you that weren't on Agweb, GP is correct, this is the kind of stuff that went on over on Agweb all the time. Plug would post some nonsensical big government solution to a problem, and everyone would have to endlessly explain to him how silly his idea was. If GP's post would remain on this level we will be lucky. At least here he is forced to occasionally come up with an original idea Unlike his endless streams of cut and pastes of someone elses ideas. If Looter is correct about ever contracting supplies (and I have no reason to believe he isn't) why on earth would you be against sending Middle Eastern and S American nations ever decreasing dollars in exchange for their oil, while keeping your own supplies safely tucked away for future use? Thirsy is also dead on. Getting the most efficient use out of each unit of energy is the most important thing humans will do from here on out. Why would someone be in favor of our government subsidizing citizens use of finite resources at below market prices? That is just plain stupid! If anything needs done it is just the opposite. We need to tax the hell out of finite resource use. Looter, do you still disagree with the premise Thirsty made a couple post up, and I have been making for years, that real global GDP can grow in a time of reducing crude production? I will only acknowlege that GDP growth in a world of shrinking energy is only possible in small countries with homogeneous people's. Heres what such an accomplishment would require; 1) Getting all trucks except short line off of the road. 2) Getting rid of freeways, which were subsidized to begin with. 3) Creating a high density living arrangement where people can bike wherever they need to go. This means no suburbs. None of these things can happen in a large diverse population. This is one of the problems with the US Union as opposed to the Articles of Confederation. The "Super Group" can't agree on anything, and the States can't expirement to learn from one another. Why not expirement? Because tax is finite, like everything else in the universe. The more the Feds can take, the less the States can have. We are simply not set up to solve this problem. So we are going to observe the largest reduction in living standards in human history. It's gonna be epic. There are some positive things happening to sorta transition. In Denver you can buy shares in a car. It's cheaper than smoke, and there's no direct maintenance expense. This allows people far more freedom. They can spend their finite money on other things besides owning a car. "White Flight" kills any hope that we will stretch the kind of GDP out of a barrel that Japan does. I used to think Japan's zero immigration policy was stupid. Now it makes sense. The mob riot by blacks sacking whites in Midwestern cities that are becoming commonplace is a death knell for energy efficiency.
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Post by looter on Aug 15, 2011 18:53:37 GMT -5
I concede that it is possible to do what Grainbelt asks, but as I posted above it takes special conditions to make it happen.
Thirsty, not I, is the king at this stuff. He introduced me to thinking about Low Time Preferance, which is what its all about.
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Post by thirsty on Aug 15, 2011 22:50:14 GMT -5
Super post Looter and I can claim no credit. Well written, well thought, short, simple and to the point. All empire's collapse in the same manner, the grain boats stopped coming from Egypt and a multi-racial Rome was already beyond unity before the barbarians (who made up two-thirds of their armies) sacked it. In the modern industrial age it is oil that greases the wheels of empire and the minute the pumpjacks creek to a halt the multi-racial empires upon this earth will degenerate into tribal warfare not seen since the last great clusterfuck (incidentally both the main axis belligerents exsisted in a malthusian trap if you get where I am headed with this). Gonna be interesting, starvation + neo-tribalism + hi tech guerilla warfare = epic times. Nightly newscasts are gonna resemble something like out of a movie, oh wait a minute they already do... Ask yourself what is this map gonna look like a century from now:
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Post by sandbox on Aug 16, 2011 15:59:43 GMT -5
And now for something completely different.
Not that dooming isn't fun. Just that the only unknown is timing.
*****
Corn Harvest Expectations Downgraded AUGUST 16, 2011 By: University News Release
For the first time, more corn will supply ethanol plants than feed farm animals. Provided by University of Missouri Extension More corn will fuel U.S. gas tanks in the coming year than will feed U.S. livestock and poultry. Amid cuts to yield estimates for corn and soybeans, the USDA’s recent Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report projects that ethanol plants will use 200 million more bushels of corn than animals will eat. “That’s a first-time-ever type of change,” said Ron Plain, an economist for University of Missouri Extension. “For forever, feed was the largest single use of corn.” Sustained high corn prices resulted in a lot of red ink for livestock producers, forcing many to shrink their livestock and poultry stocks to reduce costs and to get a better price. “Critters have to eat, so many farms will have to downsize and that is reflected in the reduced forecast for meat production next year,” Plain said. “You have to go back to 1995 to find a smaller amount of corn to be fed to livestock in the U.S. That is going to make things tough for the livestock and poultry industries.” Harvests will take a hit if USDA yield estimates hold true. Corn will make 4% less – 556 million bushels – than the 13.47 billion bushels anticipated nationwide in July. Soybean yields will fall 5.24% – 169 million bushels – from July estimates of 3.225 billion bushels. Missouri cornfields show the impact of June floods and July heat, with 32% of fields rated at poor or below, according to the Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service. However, August might stem the damage if cooler weather holds. “Corn doesn’t like drought or hot, warm nights, so it wasn’t a surprise that USDA cut the yield estimates,” Plain said. “So far, August hasn’t been that bad a month, with lower temperatures this week and some rain, so if we cross our fingers it may not get any worse than this.” Less corn to go around means fewer exports, less feed and less ethanol. Carryover stocks of corn dropped to 714 million bushels, a level last seen in 1996. That combined with a growing population will drive up prices. “The very, very tight carryover is why corn prices are going to be record-high this year,” Plain said. “We really need to plant more acres to corn next year than this year, and this was the second most acres planted in 67 years.”
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Post by linsal on Aug 16, 2011 17:55:56 GMT -5
Frankly, I expect the gubbmint to do "something" to deal with the corn situation...and I bet I know who's going to get screwed....
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Post by glowplug on Aug 16, 2011 18:38:53 GMT -5
Actually, I don't expect Barack oCarter to do much. Mooochelle is into having the public consume less meat (but she and obamunist won't be cutting back).
I've been posting for a couple years about the need for early release of non-HEL CRP acres. This year, the perfect storm of floods, dry, wet, too hot, cool, all came together. BUT, who is to say that next year will be a repeat of those near perfect 2010 conditions? In which case, we will produce a record crop and there will be no livestock sector to sell to. There will be the crippled remnants of an ethanol industry if we damage them this year eliminating the Blenders Credit for ethanol buyers. And overseas buyers of distillers' grains will be lost as customers.
If Rick Perry makes POTUS, he's no friend of ethanol. He's still a 1,000% improvement over obamunist. (That ain't a typo, I meant 1,000%). Since the 1973 OPEKer oil embargo, USA has never had leadership on this issue. Never.
A prosperous nation runs on low cost energy. Be prepared for Turd World degradation.
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Post by looter on Aug 17, 2011 6:54:43 GMT -5
And now for something completely different. Not that dooming isn't fun. Just that the only unknown is timing. ***** Corn Harvest Expectations Downgraded AUGUST 16, 2011 By: University News Release For the first time, more corn will supply ethanol plants than feed farm animals. Provided by University of Missouri Extension More corn will fuel U.S. gas tanks in the coming year than will feed U.S. livestock and poultry. Amid cuts to yield estimates for corn and soybeans, the USDA’s recent Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report projects that ethanol plants will use 200 million more bushels of corn than animals will eat. “That’s a first-time-ever type of change,” said Ron Plain, an economist for University of Missouri Extension. “For forever, feed was the largest single use of corn.” Sustained high corn prices resulted in a lot of red ink for livestock producers, forcing many to shrink their livestock and poultry stocks to reduce costs and to get a better price. “Critters have to eat, so many farms will have to downsize and that is reflected in the reduced forecast for meat production next year,” Plain said. “You have to go back to 1995 to find a smaller amount of corn to be fed to livestock in the U.S. That is going to make things tough for the livestock and poultry industries.” Harvests will take a hit if USDA yield estimates hold true. Corn will make 4% less – 556 million bushels – than the 13.47 billion bushels anticipated nationwide in July. Soybean yields will fall 5.24% – 169 million bushels – from July estimates of 3.225 billion bushels. Missouri cornfields show the impact of June floods and July heat, with 32% of fields rated at poor or below, according to the Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service. However, August might stem the damage if cooler weather holds. “Corn doesn’t like drought or hot, warm nights, so it wasn’t a surprise that USDA cut the yield estimates,” Plain said. “So far, August hasn’t been that bad a month, with lower temperatures this week and some rain, so if we cross our fingers it may not get any worse than this.” Less corn to go around means fewer exports, less feed and less ethanol. Carryover stocks of corn dropped to 714 million bushels, a level last seen in 1996. That combined with a growing population will drive up prices. “The very, very tight carryover is why corn prices are going to be record-high this year,” Plain said. “We really need to plant more acres to corn next year than this year, and this was the second most acres planted in 67 years.” This is an astonishing post... Thanks
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Post by glowplug on Aug 17, 2011 7:38:33 GMT -5
The article fails to mention that only the starch from corn goes to ethanol. The DDG byproducts still end up as critter feed.
Yes, it took a long time to build up this new market for corn. But it may only take a short time to destroy that market. We need to pressure congresscritters to get the non-HEL CRP early released. Not only will taxpayers save money from reducing the CRP payout, but we will have acres for more production. More acres will lower or at least stabilize rents in the long run.
Continued sending our money out of our country for oil has proven to bite us. Reduced energy dependance upon other nations is wise policy. And increasing supply brings oil prices down.
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Post by looter on Aug 17, 2011 8:12:29 GMT -5
The article fails to mention that only the starch from corn goes to ethanol. The DDG byproducts still end up as critter feed. Yes, it took a long time to build up this new market for corn. But it may only take a short time to destroy that market. We need to pressure congresscritters to get the non-HEL CRP early released. Not only will taxpayers save money from reducing the CRP payout, but we will have acres for more production. More acres will lower or at least stabilize rents in the long run. Continued sending our money out of our country for oil has proven to bite us. Reduced energy dependance upon other nations is wise policy. And increasing supply brings oil prices down. Early release of CRP has been going on for awhile in SD. Anybody who wants out can get out.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 17, 2011 8:22:46 GMT -5
The article fails to mention that only the starch from corn goes to ethanol. The DDG byproducts still end up as critter feed. That is exactly true, and is the factor in the equation that ag economists have not fully considered. The shift is that whole kernal corn is primarily going to ethanol. Co-products are returned to feeding operations, but are no longer called "corn".
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Post by jabber1 on Aug 17, 2011 8:38:26 GMT -5
Super post Looter and I can claim no credit. Well written, well thought, short, simple and to the point. All empire's collapse in the same manner, the grain boats stopped coming from Egypt and a multi-racial Rome was already beyond unity before the barbarians (who made up two-thirds of their armies) sacked it. In the modern industrial age it is oil that greases the wheels of empire and the minute the pumpjacks creek to a halt the multi-racial empires upon this earth will degenerate into tribal warfare not seen since the last great clusterfuck (incidentally both the main axis belligerents exsisted in a malthusian trap if you get where I am headed with this). Gonna be interesting, starvation + neo-tribalism + hi tech guerilla warfare = epic times. Nightly newscasts are gonna resemble something like out of a movie, oh wait a minute they already do... Ask yourself what is this map gonna look like a century from now: Thirsty, I question your suggestion that in the worst of times a republic or democracy will do battle based on family name or country of origin. Seems to me like any strife that this country will be faced with will cause folks to circle the wagons with others of similar socio/economic belief systems. I don't see a remote possibilty that those of German heritage that are wealthy givers and/or makers will choose to circle their wagons with those that are of German ancestry and are takers that rely on government policy for their "daily bread". Choices would be made simply on trust and/or usefulness. In the worst of times there would be people from a wide array of ethnic backgrounds that would be both useful or welcome in "my camp" and many that would not. I am also guessing that the data in the map was based on family name. I would bet that in very recent generations, that the majority of those bearing German family names have crossed with folks whose family names originated in other countries.
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Post by linsal on Aug 17, 2011 8:38:30 GMT -5
FWIW: I'm seeing CRP acres come out in my little corner of the world...it's mostly HEL...and 99% of it is going into corn and beans. It bothers me, but if cattle guys (dairy and beef) can't make a decent return, it's simply not surprising to see this happen. I would much rather see these hills with alfalfa and grass (which includes managed pasture) than row crops.
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Post by 48 on Aug 17, 2011 12:17:55 GMT -5
I think GP needs a little back up against the ethanol bashers. lol. Grainbelt is pro or at least not anti-ethanol. jabber is pro ethanol. This ought to even it up a little.
The law clearly says that in time of a short corn crop, that the mandate can be waived.
BTW, diesel has more energy than gasoline but not 30% more. That's an error I posted a long time ago. Sorry.
The EROEI of ethanol is better than gasoline.
The following Energy Contents are from the back of a little book from my commodity broker. If you want it more detailed, I can post values from Perry's Chemical Engineering Handbook. But, we need to keep this simple.
1 gal of gasoline=125,000Btu 1 gal of diesel=139,000Btu 1 gal of ethanol=84,400Btu 1 gal of E10=120,900Btu
Sooo...diesel has 139,000/125,000=11% more energy than gasoline.
But, I agree that we should be using diesel. There are Ford's in the EU that get 61mpg, but the EPA bans them in the US. If we switched semis to CNG=Compressed Natural Gas and mandated commuter vehicles to get 61mpg, we could be energy independent overnight.
Restoring US energy independence is critical if we are not going to spiral down to turd world status.
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Post by beaner on Aug 17, 2011 12:46:34 GMT -5
How in the hell can you add 10% ethanol that contains 33% less energy content than gasoline to gasoline and get a 11 increase in energy? That violates the law of thermodynamics.
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Post by 48 on Aug 17, 2011 12:55:53 GMT -5
Hi Beaner: You can't. Diesel has 11% more energy than gasoline.
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