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$8 corn
Jul 16, 2012 16:53:56 GMT -5
Post by rowfarmer on Jul 16, 2012 16:53:56 GMT -5
Do we see it tonight? yes or no I say yes
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$8 corn
Jul 16, 2012 17:13:04 GMT -5
Post by kwestfarms on Jul 16, 2012 17:13:04 GMT -5
On AgWeb ...ICF said ethanol plant he sells to was offering over $8 today !!!! John
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$8 corn
Jul 16, 2012 18:13:31 GMT -5
Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 16, 2012 18:13:31 GMT -5
Slowly getting there..... 7.94 currently on the board for Sept.
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$8 corn
Jul 18, 2012 7:47:39 GMT -5
Post by acfarmer on Jul 18, 2012 7:47:39 GMT -5
Local corn processor has had a postive basis for along time now. They are currently even with the board. Is this a sign? IDK.
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$8 corn
Jul 18, 2012 8:27:12 GMT -5
Post by rowfarmer on Jul 18, 2012 8:27:12 GMT -5
I think we have hit resistance, all the news has been traded and i think were going to go side ways for a few days till something comes up. But i'm just guessing
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$8 corn
Jul 18, 2012 14:48:17 GMT -5
Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 18, 2012 14:48:17 GMT -5
Local corn processor has had a postive basis for along time now. They are currently even with the board. Is this a sign? IDK. Just means guys are opening their bin doors again. Check the trade action at close today. Buyers are jumping in on weakness. After hours trading tonight will continue to tell the story.
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$8 corn
Jul 18, 2012 18:56:07 GMT -5
Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 18, 2012 18:56:07 GMT -5
This interesting tidbit came through a market news service today. Makes a case that this run isn't over yet. BUT, in 2008, the run was over by this point on the calendar.
"Obviously during the drought of 1988 prices were at much lower levels. However, if you look at the percentage move during the rally, it was over 83 pct. Corn went from 1.95 ½ to 3.59. So far this year the percentage has yet to even reach 45 pct as corn has rallied from 5.51 to 7.97 on the weekly."
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$8 corn
Jul 20, 2012 9:43:52 GMT -5
Post by 420 on Jul 20, 2012 9:43:52 GMT -5
We are at 860 now +47 sep. beans 1772 +10 aug. Ethanol plants are bidding as much as =25 FOR jAN AND NEW CROP. These basis levels are unheard of. Demand destruction is happening. I believe when this thing stops it is gonna be ugly. I also think these last 4 years of price swings are harmful in the long term, we are no longer a reliable supplier.
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$8 corn
Jul 20, 2012 16:47:27 GMT -5
Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 20, 2012 16:47:27 GMT -5
We are at 860 now +47 sep. beans 1772 +10 aug. Ethanol plants are bidding as much as =25 FOR jAN AND NEW CROP. These basis levels are unheard of. Demand destruction is happening. I believe when this thing stops it is gonna be ugly. I also think these last 4 years of price swings are harmful in the long term, we are no longer a reliable supplier. I could not agree more with your last sentence. I'm hearing from some pretty solid sources that we will likely see $9 corn on the board in the near future. It might just be an intra-day high, but the technicals are set up to do that.
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$8 corn
Jul 21, 2012 13:41:10 GMT -5
Post by kcm on Jul 21, 2012 13:41:10 GMT -5
End users are getting killed in all this, especially livestock guys.
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$8 corn
Jul 21, 2012 16:18:54 GMT -5
Post by flighty phil on Jul 21, 2012 16:18:54 GMT -5
kcm, how do you know what your calves will bring... and would you be better of feeding them out yourself.
A little corn goes a long ways.
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$8 corn
Jul 30, 2012 10:12:11 GMT -5
Post by kwestfarms on Jul 30, 2012 10:12:11 GMT -5
CORN OVER $8 this morning ...Chicago Merc....$9.00 coming next? John
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$8 corn
Jul 30, 2012 17:14:38 GMT -5
Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 30, 2012 17:14:38 GMT -5
Game On!
This will quickly become a game of "who blinks first". I don't think $8 corn will do much for demand destruction. $9, maybe. Psychologically, it probably will make the buyers stop and think before bidding $9+. There is a pretty good technical case for a run to $9.25ish based on the % rise in prices from 1988, and a similar increase in 2008. The overseas bids for US corn that were pulled last week or two have been re-entered, at higher bids. Mark my words. We WILL run out of corn in the pipeline before harvest 2013 and those that need grain now know it.
The way it looks to me, the cash grain guys are in the drivers seat, IF they have grain to sell.
Livestock guys have a different decision. I saw the writing on the wall and dumped my yearlings this spring. I still have some of that corn in the bin and that's worked out well so far. Those locked into buying corn will be in a world of hurt, no doubt.
Just my rambling thoughts. Feel free to poke holes, or fun, whatever.
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$8 corn
Jul 30, 2012 17:38:19 GMT -5
Post by cousinit on Jul 30, 2012 17:38:19 GMT -5
Dave, you are so full of it with your $9 BS. We dairy farmers just found out today that the safety net we had BEFORE now has been pulled out from under us. The emergency provisions that were in the 2008 Farm Bill were not extended, and no new Farm Bill will be passed anytime soon. We will cull the national herd. No dairyman can pay $9 for corn. Not at today's milk prices.
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$8 corn
Jul 30, 2012 18:06:45 GMT -5
Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 30, 2012 18:06:45 GMT -5
Dave, you are so full of it with your $9 BS. We dairy farmers just found out today that the safety net we had BEFORE now has been pulled out from under us. The emergency provisions that were in the 2008 Farm Bill were not extended, and no new Farm Bill will be passed anytime soon. We will cull the national herd. No dairyman can pay $9 for corn. Not at today's milk prices. Maybe a dairyman can't, maybe the hog or beef guy can't either, but we're seeing $8.50+ cash bids today at area processors. A three or four day run and $9 is in play. Right now the livestock guys are getting outbid for grain. The milk processors will need to realize to maintain a supply of milk, they will have to increase the bids and pass that cost to the retail market. It's happened before, it can happen again. What would it take to keep you running fat and happy? $18, 19, 20/cwt? And what would that increase add to the cost of a gallon of milk or pound of cheese?
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