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Post by looter on Nov 11, 2011 6:23:08 GMT -5
38.96.246.204/oog/info/twip/gtstusm.gif [/img] 38.96.246.204/oog/info/twip/festusm.gif [/img] Farmers all over the net are worried about MF Global collapse taking investor $$ out of commodities. Outside of Grainbelt and a couple others, a person scarcely finds a person that understands that the betting don't affect the game. Every long that left due to the MF Global debacle took a short with them. Getting orders (especially options) filled will get harder as money leaves commodities, but the spot monthly price chart will go on unfettered. You can see above what could happen if the market discovers a price a bit too low. If the current price holds, then demand better fall pretty soon.
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Post by thirsty on Nov 11, 2011 8:34:14 GMT -5
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Post by glowplug on Nov 11, 2011 8:35:59 GMT -5
Just tells us the prices for gas and diesel are too high and people don't have the money to spend. Wallymart just experienced 9 consecutive quarters of decline. Consumers don't have the money.
Meanwhile the prices of gas/diesel are headed up. Doesn't match normal supply/demand theory, looter.
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Post by thirsty on Nov 11, 2011 8:42:41 GMT -5
I can give you examples where betting not only effected the game but also determined the outcome. Out right match fixing is just as much a problem in major league sports as it is on the Comex. I don't believe Nymex is as easy to rig as the metals, if at all, but to believe they don't try is naive.... wonder whatever happened to all that $110 SPR oil JPM bought back in the spring and why would they buy it at a loss?
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Post by thirsty on Nov 11, 2011 8:45:21 GMT -5
So that is why stockpiles are collapsing???
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Post by iowa55 on Nov 11, 2011 10:04:10 GMT -5
My take on less stockpiles is
1) when is inventory tax time?
2) The price is about to spike higher. Fill now. Have you noticed crude is just under $100 barrel?
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Post by looter on Nov 11, 2011 14:15:24 GMT -5
Just tells us the prices for gas and diesel are too high and people don't have the money to spend. Wallymart just experienced 9 consecutive quarters of decline. Consumers don't have the money. Meanwhile the prices of gas/diesel are headed up. Doesn't match normal supply/demand theory, looter. The blue band is the previous 5 year average range. Inventories in both nominal volume and days-to-cover are low and shrinking. Try buying a tanker of diesel in SD... Better have patience. Supply isn't keeping up with demand. Price needs to do a better job of rationing unless we want shortages. This theme is dominant since oil peaked and will become more so as supply worsens. Wal-mart etc will never have growth again. The consumer will never stop observing a loss in purchasing power. We will observe low price episodes, but never due to an increase in flows like the old days.
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Post by glowplug on Nov 11, 2011 19:47:42 GMT -5
This is a manufactured shortage if there is one.
Production is reduced to force prices higher. Consumers can't afford high priced gas/diesel so they buy less. Rather than produce more, cut prices so consumption rises, the oil companies are hosing us.
And it isn't just the oil companies alone. The obamunist govt. won't allow drilling in ANWR, off the west coast and in many other areas. (Nor did previous administrations.).
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Post by looter on Nov 11, 2011 22:47:56 GMT -5
This is a manufactured shortage if there is one. Production is reduced to force prices higher. Consumers can't afford high priced gas/diesel so they buy less. Rather than produce more, cut prices so consumption rises, the oil companies are hosing us. And it isn't just the oil companies alone. The obamunist govt. won't allow drilling in ANWR, off the west coast and in many other areas. (Nor did previous administrations.). Thanks to record oil drilling by a factor of ten, USA oil production is up to multi-year highs; Meanwhile the global gasoline price is getting priced out of reach of Americans; The entire US petro inventory problem is all on the loss of imports; Last week was another terrible week for imports, and a big one for exports. Fuel will always flow to the most efficient user. Check this out; The people in developing countries running scooters will simply starve American soccer moms and their SUVs for fuel. There will be zero fuel problem for the efficient people. Absolutely none of the present US transportation system will exist as Asian trains/scooters take all they want.
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Post by linsal on Nov 12, 2011 7:12:57 GMT -5
Looter..when do you think the US highway transportation system (as we know it) will start to take a nose dive? tia.
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Post by looter on Nov 12, 2011 8:47:42 GMT -5
Looter..when do you think the US highway transportation system (as we know it) will start to take a nose dive? tia. Hmmmm.... The roads themselves won't deteriorate excessively until Chinese lose interest in our bonds. Roads are a favorite place to spend Keynesian stimuli. It's possible our roads out-last our ability to afford using them??? I dunno... the roads around here are SO MUCH WORSE than they'be ever been. Maybe its farmers getting semis instead of little trucks, maybe its the wet springs, maybe its neglect. In the case of gravel roads the problem is a lack of gravel. While western SD has always been gravel-poor, glacial tilled East River SD is also now nearly devoid of QUALITY gravel in concentrated veins. It's just unbelievable. The trucks hauling the dirt they now call "gravel" do more damage to the roads themselves than they fix. It only took 60 years to completely exhaust the best gravel deposits in a huge area.... I don't know how big, but it's multi-state at least. We are definately going to abandon most of our roads in the next decade and focus on fixing the main arteries. I doubt we get serious about creating train infrastructure until after The Collapse when its too late. How many people understand what is going on in the fuel arena? How many realize the problem is bigger than "drill baby drill" (or that we are already drilling more than anybody can imagine)
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Post by looter on Nov 12, 2011 8:54:58 GMT -5
Wow!! Great link! Everybody should click on it! Obviously fuel is too cheap. Here's a real zinger from it, -------------------------------- "As soon as we hear a tanker truck has pulled in and filled up one of the stations, we try to get one of our trucks there as quick as possible to be first in the key to get filled up. It's not a very scientific way of doing it because we have no idea when their tankers are replenishing the stations," he said. "Everybody's in the same boat," he added. "We're very concerned that business could be seriously affected over the next two weeks if we don't find some solutions to our fuel issues. It's turned into a very serious matter at this point."
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Post by thirsty on Nov 12, 2011 9:47:33 GMT -5
Couple things before I head out on a recon.... ;D My worry is that this big draw down in distillate is military stockpiling. www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-and-iran-here-weekly-us-naval-updateSaw a semi pulling a couple gravel dumps filling up at a retail station yesterday (stat holiday up here). Looked odd cuz he had to block other pumps with his trailers. Rome's highways are still in exsistence 2000 years later... even in far away colonies such as Britain. Fortunately they were made of stone and slave labour, our roads are made from the same stuff we run our transportation on....
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Post by looter on Nov 13, 2011 12:59:49 GMT -5
(AP) LINCOLN, Neb. —Gasoline and diesel shortages at fuel terminals in the Upper Midwest have forced fuel truck drivers to sit in line for hours, waiting for fuel to arrive via pipeline.
Other truck drivers have seen diesel prices rise, nearing $4 a gallon in Nebraska and passing that in the Dakotas.
"I've never seen anything like it in my life," Dick Salem, president of Lincoln Trucking Lightning, told the Lincoln Journal Star. "We went through three big-time shortages in the '70s, and it was never nothing like this."
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Post by linsal on Nov 13, 2011 17:07:35 GMT -5
Looter and Thirsty...President Obama decided to release 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR back in June...did that ever get replenished? I don't know where to look. tia.
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