BKN
Hired Hand
Posts: 209
|
Post by BKN on Nov 17, 2011 0:13:54 GMT -5
www.worldisround.com/articles/28276/photo30.html Maybe we should be drilling here to stop the oil from bubbling up. Oh, I forgot, obama and the enviro whacko's won't allow it, and Al gore would probably be able to see drilling rigs from his new house on the coast.
|
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 3:48:53 GMT -5
www.worldisround.com/articles/28276/photo30.html Maybe we should be drilling here to stop the oil from bubbling up. Oh, I forgot, obama and the enviro whacko's won't allow it, and Al gore would probably be able to see drilling rigs from his new house on the coast. Offshore drilling near Santa Barbara began in 1958. Drilling and subsequent production reduced the amount of tarballs that had been showing up on the local beaches for over 150 million years. By 1969 when the infamous blowout occurred, the natural venting of oil seepage in the Santa Barbara channel became a mere trickle.... measuring only a few thousand gallons/day. Santa Barbara onshore was tapped hard in 1920. As drilling increased, production rose, tapered, then declined more and more. Prior to 1920 oil seeps were present onshore, and the oil springs were a nuisance. After a few years of drilling, the "nuisance" was gone. Drilling/production taps reservoir psi. The world isn't running out of oil very fast but it ran out quality of oil reservoir psi long, long ago. Natural reservoir pressure and water-driven flows created the orgy of growth that was the 20th century. We are presently replacing reservoir psi driven oil production with hydraulic fraccing. This is the same as replacing artesian flow with a submersible pump it simply takes more energy. (Which is why ND's diesel consumption is raging higher and higher) With each passing year we move further into oil plays that yield less and less NET ENERGY. The EROEI falls over time. |
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 3:58:27 GMT -5
The 1969 oil blowout in the Santa Barbara channel stopped new drilling and production in the area died on the vine. What would have happened had the blowout not occurred and drilling gone on unabated? I'll tell you precisely what would have happened....
The same thing would have happened to the reservoir PSI in Santa Barbara offshore that happened to Santa Barbara onshore 30 years earlier. It would have gone to nearer atmospheric PSI levels. The remaining oil would have been a bitch to get.
The added oil during the 1970's from CA offshore would have depressed prices for a little while and delayed AK production by a couple years, but it would also delayed the conservation efforts correspondingly. (Before the 1973 Arab oil embargo a huge % of USA electricity generation came from burning oil)
We will finish killing Santa Barbara offshore reservoir psi once society finally wants the oil bad enough. Once its flowing again people can ask themselves if hoarding it was so dumb afterall.
|
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 4:07:47 GMT -5
It's true that the USA is hoarding a couple nuggets of easy oil. (ANWR etc) This policy started in 1950s under Eisenhauer. He propsed we hoard some easy oil so that it would then be available during war. Just like a SPR. The oil drillers didn't like the idea. They lobbied and obtained a tariff on foreign oil selling for less that $3.50/barrel.
For every barrel of lost daily USA production due to off-limits drilling, the USA is producing AT LEAST one barrel that would remain in the ground without drilling subsidies. The Intangible Drilling Cost Tax Credit reimburses all drilling costs. Its unbelievable actually. (If the treasury would reimburse all seed corn expenses I'd be a rich man)
|
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 4:25:48 GMT -5
investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm"Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon central time on the last day of the work week. The international rig count is released on the fifth working day of each month."From the link above you will learn two eye-popping things; 1) The USA has a LOT more drilling rigs operating than the entire rest of the world COMBINED. 2) Rig count jumped 30% since 2005. Even though all those new extra rigs added complete holes 65% faster, the year 2005 still holds the record for the most crude oil ever produced.
|
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 4:40:46 GMT -5
It's an irrefutable fact that half of all the oil produced every day comes from just 1% of the oil fields. Those 12 fields producing half of the supply were all discovered by before WWII ended. As they wane in production, we try to make up for it by drilling what's left.... deeper, harder, tighter, and with less natural lift.
Before 2005 global oil production increased 2%/year. The future is one without that amazing and lucky tailwind.
The 20th century found people believing that prosperity happened thanks to all the "isms" that arose during that period. (Keynesianism, socialism, feminism, protectionism, centralaizationism etc) The truth is that prosperity happened IN SPITE of gov't regulations, not because of them. Increased energy supply was a party.
Today we are taking a tour of the "Bad News National Park". The backside of Hubbert's Peak will involve daily economic horror stories that nobody at the dawn of the millenium thought conceivable. Some of us are enjoying the scenery on the paved easy road leading through this jungle. The other 95% of the populace will take a terrible path wrought with pitfalls.
The relatively low-cost commodity producer will never enjoy such joy. Everybody else will live in squalor. This is the Malthusian story for the rest of all mankind.
|
|
|
|
Post by ses on Nov 17, 2011 4:46:36 GMT -5
Looter, there has to be a reason for more than half of the rigs operating in the US. I guess I have a problem wrapping my head around that. With crude prices this high why aren't there more rigs running elsewhere? Is it political ? economics? Maybe simply because the dollar is so low oil really isn't that profitable to drill any where else? Gotta be a reason.
|
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Nov 17, 2011 8:28:04 GMT -5
"It's true that the USA is hoarding a couple nuggets of easy oil. (ANWR etc) This policy started in 1950s under Eisenhauer. He propsed we hoard some easy oil so that it would then be available during war."
------------------looter, this makes no sense. It would take 7 years to develop ANWR and start refining the oil produced. Wars start quickly, you don't have a 7 year lead time on someone attacking us. The only way ANWR would be a strategic reserve for war, would be to drill and put all infrastructure in place, then put a padalock on it. That doesn't happen in the real world.
We failed to develop an enegy policy in response to the 1973 OPECker Oil Embargo. Some folks will end up in a world of hurt as a result.
|
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 8:35:01 GMT -5
Looter, there has to be a reason for more than half of the rigs operating in the US. I guess I have a problem wrapping my head around that. With crude prices this high why aren't there more rigs running elsewhere? Is it political ? economics? Maybe simply because the dollar is so low oil really isn't that profitable to drill any where else? Gotta be a reason. Intangible Drilling Cost Tax Credit. Nobody else has it. Shale gas is only profitable in the USA. (If anywhere) The Canada side of the oil shale called Bakken isn't profitable like it is in ND. If our government should overnight lose its ability to borrow, then USA oil production gets body slammed. We borrow $$ from the Chinese and use it to reimburse drilling costs. Nobody drills deeper, in deeper water, into tighter formations, farther from pipelines. Nobody. Then again nobody has our debt level either. USA = world's third largest oil producer. We are ahead of Iran. Nothing you hear in a GOP Prez debate about oil is true. "Government's approach to industry can be summarized like this; if it moves, tax it. It it still moves, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it." - Ronald Reagan |
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 8:40:38 GMT -5
"It's true that the USA is hoarding a couple nuggets of easy oil. (ANWR etc) This policy started in 1950s under Eisenhauer. He propsed we hoard some easy oil so that it would then be available during war." ------------------looter, this makes no sense. It would take 7 years to develop ANWR and start refining the oil produced. Wars start quickly, you don't have a 7 year lead time on someone attacking us. The only way ANWR would be a strategic reserve for war, would be to drill and put all infrastructure in place, then put a padalock on it. That doesn't happen in the real world. We failed to develop an enegy policy in response to the 1973 OPECker Oil Embargo. Some folks will end up in a world of hurt as a result. Read what I said there carefully. (I guess I didn't make it clear. Sorry.) Ike's idea was to purposely slow drilling all across the USA. (AK oil wasn't on the radar screen yet) His argument was that WWII was won by the East Texas field. It couldn't be repeated if we squandered our oil reserves. At the time world oil price was $1.50/barrel. He wanted to import it instead of drilling here for it during peace-time. Congress had other ideas when they backed API's lobby for tariffs on imported oil. |
|
|
|
Post by ses on Nov 17, 2011 8:58:22 GMT -5
Looter, there has to be a reason for more than half of the rigs operating in the US. I guess I have a problem wrapping my head around that. With crude prices this high why aren't there more rigs running elsewhere? Is it political ? economics? Maybe simply because the dollar is so low oil really isn't that profitable to drill any where else? Gotta be a reason. Intangible Drilling Cost Tax Credit. Nobody else has it. Shale gas is only profitable in the USA. (If anywhere) The Canada side of the oil shale called Bakken isn't profitable like it is in ND. If our government should overnight lose its ability to borrow, then USA oil production gets body slammed. We borrow $$ from the Chinese and use it to reimburse drilling costs. Nobody drills deeper, in deeper water, into tighter formations, farther from pipelines. Nobody. Then again nobody has our debt level either. USA = world's third largest oil producer. We are ahead of Iran. Nothing you hear in a GOP Prez debate about oil is true. "Government's approach to industry can be summarized like this; if it moves, tax it. It it still moves, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it." - Ronald Reagan O Bummers new $1.2 trillion "Stupor Committee" fix is supposed to cut way in to oil companies tax benefits. Could have some unintended consequences. |
|
|
|
Post by Grainbelt on Nov 17, 2011 9:00:51 GMT -5
. The relatively low-cost commodity producer will never enjoy such joy. Everybody else will live in squalor. This is the Malthusian story for the rest of all mankind. In the US we will likely remove the incentive for the low-cost domestic commodity producer to see this windfall of success. The majority will vote to tax all of this relatively small groups profit incentive away from them and otherwise productive resources will lay idle due to our incredibly clumsy political system. |
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 20:29:26 GMT -5
Ah yes, and I've said for years that we need to stretch out and expand our petro-diesel supplies with biodiesel. Great idea! More product for export to people who are more productive, more efficient, and less full of themselves.... www.heatingoil.com/blog/distillate-reserves-take-record-hit-1114/ "The EIA attributes this year’s lower stocks largely to foreign export demand, with Europe and Latin America leading the charge. The US exported a record 895,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel in August, the most recent month data is available for. Distillate exports from the East Coast have increased 59 percent (33,000 bbl/d) between January and August compared to the same period last year." |
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 20:42:24 GMT -5
. The relatively low-cost commodity producer will never enjoy such joy. Everybody else will live in squalor. This is the Malthusian story for the rest of all mankind. In the US we will likely remove the incentive for the low-cost domestic commodity producer to see this windfall of success. The majority will vote to tax all of this relatively small groups profit incentive away from them and otherwise productive resources will lay idle due to our incredibly clumsy political system. I hear ya bud. So what's your take on regulation of finance/banking industry? My belief is that regs blocks dudes like you and I from starting an honest exchange. Govt cannot police financial sector, and attempts create a false sense of security. Regulators are like a cocker spaniel watching an orgy... They don't know what's goin on, they just know they somehow want involved. A collapse of shady firms along followed by customers rewarding honest firms is the Austrian School way. What's your thoughts? BTW, let me know when you decide you need a partner on a Doomstead/Trophy Ranch. I'm your Huckleberry.... |
|
|
|
Post by looter on Nov 17, 2011 20:46:49 GMT -5
GB, I will repost the above post under "MF'ers".
|
|
