Market trends over the next 30 days.

[Dave-ECIA]

Ok guys, step up.

What do you think the market trends will be in the next 30 days?? I want your opinion, not cut and paste from some "expert".

I know there is a lot of personal knowledge out there. Give us your opinon, right or wrong, and the reason why.

I'll add my .02 once the discussion begins.

For the record, pre-harvest, I'm short beans, long corn but I'm not telling where I established those positions.... yet.

[Bristol Hillbilly]

I personally think we are in a weather market from here on out. The only reason I have for this is put all traders to the sidelines and if we ain't growing it due to drought flood or other reasons the price is going up in a big way. I really believe when it all said and done USDA is going to say shit we really missed the guess by alot. I just read and see to many places that are struggling with weather issues. This is my own personal opinion, nothing more, nothing less.

[Dave-ECIA]

Thanks for your opinion. It's one that I kinda share, tempered with some interesting charting I follow.

Here is my take, rip it apart if you wish, it's the only way we learn....

We are in a weather dominated market. Corn does not have the ability to adapt to adverse weather as soybeans do. The lowering of the yield estimate is a first shot, they will do more. Personally, I think USDA applies some "Kentucky Windage" to their estimates based on the private research firm chatter. I look for them to lower the yields on corn again but play with harvested acres to balance out overall production. At least until post-harvest.

I've talked to a good number of folks who travel extensively across Iowa, E. Nebraska, Illinois and northern Mizzou. These are ag guys, not farmers so no "happy sunshine, or the sky is falling" outlooks.

Here is their take... Iowa, east of I-35, and north of 92 looks pretty good. West and south of those lines are hurt, but not terrible. Illinois is spotty, as is Mizzou. I haven't heard a lot out of Nebraska but would imagine that they guys in the river bottoms are taking it in the shorts, and the dryland guys are hit and miss.

Bottom line, we SHOULD be looking at sub-150 yields. Hello USDA??

Soybeans are looking excellent overall. I can't see a great reduction in yield but would not put it past them to play with the acres to balance out production #'s to suit their interests. Personally, my pod counts are above average and still setting some new blooms. Soys are hard to judge from the road so me sources aren't much help here.

barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSX11&style=technical&p=DO&d=M&x=73&y=8&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=BBANDS%2820%2C2%2C10066431%2C3227936511%29&chartindicator_1_code=BBANDS&chartindicator_1_param_0=20&chartindicator_1_param_1=2&chartindicator_1_param_2=10066431&chartindicator_1_param_3=3227936511&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

Notice we have been trading in a range from @12.90 to 14 since april. the volatility has not broken that range for four months now. I've overlaid bollinger bands, which I think give an excellent predictor of direction for grains.

I went short on Nov beans on 4/11 when it broke the $14 range for the second time. I expect one more test of the $14 level prior to harvest before settling back sub $13 as harvest starts to roll.

There ya go! Opinions, comments, grawlixes all welcome....

I'll tackle corn prices next.

[Bristol Hillbilly]

A buddy of mine suggested after the screwy July crop report, that USDA was just putting off the inevitable of low crops high prices. What really gets me is that all elevators report what they have in storage monthly the government can see golf ball dimples with satellites but they cannot manage to come up with a real number on crops. I would think if you can see a golf ball you could surely analyze a couple sections of corn randomly.

[Dave-ECIA]

See, that's my beef with USDA and has been for a LONG time. USDA, through FSA, already knows the planted acres. Hell, we are REQUIRED to report them. Have the counties add up the numbers, kick them up to the state. States add up their numbers and kick, them up to Federal. Federal USDA now knows EXACTLY how many acres are planted. The numbers are RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM!!! Why the frickity frack are they ESTIMATING planted acres, and how can they change


Same goes, as you said, with grain in storage in commercial hands. They only have to guess the bushels in farmer hands.

[MarlandS]

I can help with the grain in farmer's hands, atleast locally , almost absolutely zero . A great many on my client list zeroed out in January/February partially due to quite a bit of selling over the scales at harvest , not filling bins . There are just a handfull left and these are small bins (3000 govt bins) and bigger bins that have been drawn down and waiting on me to arrive.
There is a BTO with a 100,000 bushels on farm as of two weeks ago but they are in tight with a local co op whom they truck for and are considered an outlying elevator . They are the exception .

The coops are emptying all outlying locations to main elevators who have rail loading. Of those outlying elevators 50% or better are completely and totally empty. Truckers are starting to hunt for work due to lack of grain to move .

That's the view from "here".

[glowplug]

At some point the prices will peak, drop back before harvest, then rise after harvest.

Unless Chimpy McDeity pulls a Jimmy Carter that messes with the economy in a big way.

Glowplug

[Dave-ECIA]

Took some leftover seed beans to the river today along with a hopper of corn. Absolutely no line at Cargill today and they looked REALLY bored.

[looter]

Long wheat.

Ain't gonna waste time talkin known fundamentals. They are all baked into the market.

Pure gut instinct. I think the next known will be a short HRS crop relative to trade expectations.

I think there will only be 5 down days in the next 30. I base this pu4erly on gut instinct.

[wctyilfarmer]

corn steady, beans up. just gauging from a field stand point.

[Hobbyfarmer]

THE basis just dropped another 3 cents at one elevator and 5 at the other. The harvest screwing is coming for those without bin space and those needing to pay bills.

[Dave-ECIA]

Hobby. Where is here??

Here, at the river markets in Quad Cities and Muscatine Iowa, they are lowering the basis for old crop and steady on new. We're running a positive basis on corn (+.02 Cargill, +.16 for GPC) for cash corn. Tells me they are begging for corn. Rarely do we see a positive basis.

[looter]

Aug 15, 2011 23:21:59 GMT -5 looter said:

Long wheat.

Ain't gonna waste time talkin known fundamentals. They are all baked into the market.

Pure gut instinct. I think the next known will be a short HRS crop relative to trade expectations.

I think there will only be 5 down days in the next 30. I base this pu4erly on gut instinct.

Spent three days at Dakfest last week where I talked to over 200 differant farmers in the Dakotas. The only fairly decent wheat was south of HWY 34. The further north you go, the worse it gets relative to expectations.

"80 bushel straw, 20 bushel wheat". I heard over n over. Protien is really high, but test weight on HRS is in mid 40's.

I expect the dollar to roar higher this week, a wreck in the stock market. While wheat, espec HRS, I expect to be relatively strong. Harvest info is shocking people, even most locals who didn't see this coming...

[ses]

Looter, that 80 bu. straw and 20 bu wheat started clear down here in northern Kansas just across the Neb. border. Quite a few fields never even seen a combine.

[looter]

Aug 21, 2011 21:39:06 GMT -5 ses said:

Looter, that 80 bu. straw and 20 bu wheat started clear down here in northern Kansas just across the Neb. border. Quite a few fields never even seen a combine.

I have a friend in party-hardy mode... sorta. He pulled into a HRW field that looked FABULOUS. Afterall, he sprayed it like it was hair on an eighties rock band. Three fungicide apps etc. He raised 80-90 bu continous crop 4 years in a row and it looked like number 5 was in the bag.

He pulled out of that field in hopes a hailstorm would eventually take it. A couple nights ago one did. Whew...

Anyway, not all the wheat was single digits, but by and large, yields east of 281 and north of HWY 212 are worse than in 2006. That's so unexpected its not even funny.