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Post by ses on Aug 11, 2011 8:21:47 GMT -5
I'm a little surprised USDA came out with these numbers. Future yields will be less every time they come out with a new report IMO . I'd say the ethanol gig is about to take an ugly turn.
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Post by linsal on Aug 11, 2011 8:27:43 GMT -5
Ses----do you think there is any chance the USDA will restrict or curtail corn exports? I don't trust this administration at all....
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Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 8:36:11 GMT -5
That will complete the oCarter experience, linsal. Farmers in my age bracket recall the Carter grain embargo well. Screwed over US export marketing for decades after. So anything that Barry oCarter does won't surprise me.
I'm thinking that my personal Harbor Freight crystal ball prediction is around 149 bu. ave. It's that ugly out there. For you dairy guys, get ready to lock up your soymeal needs. I think you have some time yet to do it. But be watching for opportunities. From what I found in discussions, soy meal supplies should be okay.
But corn is a completely different story.
Glowplug
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Post by ses on Aug 11, 2011 8:45:24 GMT -5
I don't see an embargo at all. However a nice stiff tariff could be in the cards. Look what Obummer done on imported tires. He has no problem with bending over for the right contribution.
IMO sub 150 final yield is a given. It really looks like USDA is trying to regain some credibility so their estimates in the future might be not so severe of a correction.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 11, 2011 8:48:34 GMT -5
ses, given that oCarter wants to increase taxes on anything/everything, we could be saddle with taxes on exported grains........oh, we're turning into Argentina......shit.
Glowplug
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Post by beaner on Aug 11, 2011 8:50:22 GMT -5
I also think corn yield avg will be below 150. I wonder why USDA cut soybean avg yield by a greater percentage than corn when August is more crucial month for soybeans.
I also cannot fathom that North Dakota got more acres of corn and soybeans planted this year than last.
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Post by ses on Aug 11, 2011 8:51:29 GMT -5
Yep GP agriculture is the only bright spot so that's the place to tax Hell out of something. No matter if it's an embargo, tariff or a huge tax the end result will be the same.
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Post by looter on Aug 12, 2011 21:52:51 GMT -5
If folks have the time, its worth it to read all you can on a man name Per'on. He was president of Argentina long ago. Argentina is one of the few countries to thrive in the 1930s. All that prosperity ended when Per'on got in power.
The part that kills me is, the people of Argentina never recovered. They kept trying the same bad ideas. It would be one thing if they looked back on the Peron era and said, "What were we thinking?" The problem is they don't get it.
Obama is more like Per'on than any other politico in world history.
I expect America to produce sub 10 billion bushel corn crops simply due to bad policy. Nobody else will pick up the slack. I leave you to calculate the impact on the grain importing world on what's gonna happen.
There is one wild card in my expectations.... Ron Paul. I think he takes the Republican nomination, seriously. The rest of the candidates are all like Abba. They know the words, but they don't even speak the language. But can Paul beat Obama? How can a guy who openly states the solution is to; allow an unfettered correction in home values, an unfettered correction in equities, an, and an abandonment of social security expect to win the presidency?
That would require an epic disaster of some sort while Obama is still in office.
The result would be an end of all corporate welfare, but ethanol plants will turn out probably 6 or 7 billion gallons per year in a Lassaiz-Faire world.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 12, 2011 23:08:14 GMT -5
Yeah and Ron Paul says legalize heroin.
He's going nohere, looter.
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Post by ses on Aug 12, 2011 23:48:16 GMT -5
It's rapidly getting to the point where doing dope is the least of our problems.
Is deflation really so bad? Probably painful for a while but ....it's going to have to get to where a man drawing $8-10 an hour can afford to buy a house. All of this huge wealth created in this country the past few decades is nothing but smoke. It isn't even wealth, it's all credit. A guy with a $500,000 house has a lot of assets but if he's upside down on it he has no wealth.
There's going to be a huge correction no matter who is elected. Ron Paul might be the right man with the right ideas but he doesn't have a snow ball's chance in Hell of winning. Way too many on the government tit, including most of us farmers. This whole smoke and mirrors economy is a run away train that will soon crash. Until that happens there is nothing that can fix it. JMHO.
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Post by looter on Aug 13, 2011 6:15:02 GMT -5
It's rapidly getting to the point where doing dope is the least of our problems. Is deflation really so bad? Probably painful for a while but ....it's going to have to get to where a man drawing $8-10 an hour can afford to buy a house. All of this huge wealth created in this country the past few decades is nothing but smoke. It isn't even wealth, it's all credit. A guy with a $500,000 house has a lot of assets but if he's upside down on it he has no wealth. There's going to be a huge correction no matter who is elected. Ron Paul might be the right man with the right ideas but he doesn't have a snow ball's chance in Hell of winning. Way too many on the government tit, including most of us farmers. This whole smoke and mirrors economy is a run away train that will soon crash. Until that happens there is nothing that can fix it. JMHO. You can't fight deflation for the sake of fighting deflation and have an economy intact. It's like outlawing gravity. Falling prices is what people throughout history wanted..... Until the 20th century. I believe Dr. Paul is going to get the nomination for the same reason Ventura won in MN, people want something new. Nobody cares about drugs, but when folks here a 70 year old man who lives life like Mr. Rogers neighborhood say its none of the govt business, folks find it appealing. What is stopping folks from contracting 2013 grain??? The legitimate fear that the dollar will collapse into the dust like all fiat currencies do. A gold standard would allow a man to long term plan without fear of either inflation or deflation sacking him. Nobody else discusses the gold standard in the debates. Nobody except Republican politicians want a big military anymore. Nobody under 45 years old wants to contribute to social security. Enough registered Republicans want a guy who flies commercial and stays at Super 8 to nominate Dr. Paul. A guy like that Prolly won't beat Obama, but the debate between those two will educate people. After we have TEOTWAWKI a lot of folks will realize what the problem was and kill Keynesianism forever. This is the service the guy provides. |
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