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Post by GrainMan on Jul 12, 2011 20:32:32 GMT -5
What a cool new site. I can't wait to get some cool discussions going about the grain markets. I am a marketing specialist in KC so bring on the debate.
All I can say is basis is on fire in KC on old crop corn, and if you are holding on to some all I can say is WHY?
Thoughts?
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Post by acfarmer on Jul 12, 2011 20:35:28 GMT -5
Are we about out of old crop corn. Around here from what Ive heard it will be slim pickings by the end of august.
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Post by acfarmer on Jul 12, 2011 20:38:11 GMT -5
What are your thoughts on beans. Ive still got some of them. Ive been selling some here and there all year. Seems Ive always been in that 13.40- 13.50 range.
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Post by jd9600guru on Jul 13, 2011 1:22:28 GMT -5
why the craziness for old crop corn? What's driving the market? with the super duper awesome bumper crop** the USDA keeps talking about (again)**, won't there be corn running out the ying-yang come October?
Oh, and I don't know of any old crop left around here........ to bad it's my job just to fill the bins.
jd
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Post by GrainMan on Jul 13, 2011 20:59:58 GMT -5
AC - on the bean side I say keep in mind that we have a major crop in South America that was not there this time last year. If our dollar climbs our export pull will be flat. The bean demand right now is coming from the domestic soybean crush market, the chickens are still needing bean meal, and soy oil is worth a boat load on the board. So locally, I say the 13.50 - 14.00 range is cash money, and NEVER be ashamed at that sale.
My say is buy a call on the board (approx 60 cents/bushel cost) so if you can net 13 dollar cash beans and own that on the board through summer if we don't grow a domestic bean crop will pay major dividends.
Any questions please ask about options and such. The motto I live by: you can't go broke selling for consistent profit.
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Post by turdypointbuck on Jul 13, 2011 21:07:40 GMT -5
i know a guy around here that still has around 6 thousand bu of corn and nearly 3 thousand bu beans still left to sell. Ive been hearing beans could be $11 or up to $16 depending on who you talk to. I believe beans will be a sleeper crop this year, followed by wheat. I dont have any reason other then I think the crop will be short this year.
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7150
FFA member
Posts: 83
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Post by 7150 on Jul 15, 2011 20:23:41 GMT -5
I kept an even 1,000 bushel of corn to play with. Elevator called the day they had $8.04 some time ago and I passed it up. (Didn't say I was very bright.)
Cash corn here in East Central Illinois is 50ยข over.
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Post by GrainMan on Jul 16, 2011 8:17:04 GMT -5
8 dollar cash corn and passed it up 7150? uggg, man that is seller. I talked to a large producer yesterday about selling 8 dollar cash corn into a feed mill, said 8 dollars was not good enought, basis on o/c corn getting better. I told him to ask his banker if he will accept basis as loan repayment.
He laughed on the phone and solld 250k bushles. Let the cash do the talking.
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Post by GrainMan on Jul 16, 2011 16:33:22 GMT -5
turdypointbuck,
I want to challenge the thought of your bean crop hunch. in you area I agree the beans will be a major sleeper crop, especially if we have a heat dome in August like we are having in July. However, think of the beans in the entire US. A record soybean crop planted per USDA reported acres, so if your burnt up in a 30 bu average area, think of all the beans in the 60 bu plus areas that do have moisture.
Have to think of the world market now, not a three county area. I have a conference call with the soybean team on Monday, will be a major meeting with South American grain buyers, East Asia grain reps, as well as our dometic team. I will recap and post what we find out.
FWIW.. I get to be the rep for West MO, East KS, SW IA, and SE NE. I will represent your opinion well.
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Post by turdypointbuck on Jul 17, 2011 14:23:22 GMT -5
Like always, time will tell. Im sure there will be places where the beans take off and places where they wont. I cant ever remember a heatwave quite like the one that is going on now. Maybe it will rain in august for everyone with beans and we will have a good crop. IM no marketing expert by anymeans, just my gut feeling on the beans. But the traders dont care about my gut feeling lol
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Jul 20, 2011 18:47:11 GMT -5
Went for a 25 mile drive over to SE of Winterset, Iowa and was surprised at the raggedness of the corn and smallness of most of the beans on the good ridges.
Also saw more Prevent Plant that I would have ever guessed on that good ground. The lawns had ALL turned brown in that area. if we/they don't catch a good shower tomorrow like is predicted the crop will start a rapid downward spiral.
I good friend of mine that has a plane said he took a flight over most of south central Iowa a couple of days ago and did not see what he would describe as a good field of corn.
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