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Post by Rich© on Aug 2, 2011 14:12:53 GMT -5
Corn was up 30 cents.
Something was said about spring wheat production in the northern states isn't as good as they predicted.
Not quite sure i'm buying that as the reason for the push in price.
The debt ceiling raised was passed in the house and moved to the senate.... did I hear that correct? Is that partial for why the increase in price? People thinking time is close to be able to take on more debt?
Not sure I understand this one but in any case what I'm wanting to figure is how do we anticipate the next 3 days of trading?
Got any thoughts?
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Aug 2, 2011 14:26:24 GMT -5
I haven't had a chance yet to digest the news and the resulting reaction. I will say the market has been looking for some good news. I'd say today was post-party euphoria. I'd expect carry-over tonight and tomorrow with cooler heads prevailing by mid-morning thursday. Gold prices will continue their climb, and pull the other precious metals with them.
I'm also expecting the crop condition deterioration to start nibbling away at the market mood. We've lacked some "bad" news in the market. When we start getting those first yield estimates from the private sources, we should see a nice bump in the market.
As always, this is gleaned from gut feel, experience, and trade sources. Your mileage may vary......
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Aug 2, 2011 14:44:13 GMT -5
I can tell you that from what I see and the fact here in South Podunk country that this heat and sudden lack of moisture after being flooded the end of June has about cooked my corn and the 1/3 that was replant is shoulder high and trying to tassel. What a waste of seed. The normal planted corn had a chance but just two 1/4 inch shots of rain the whole month of July and it is weaning back yield by the hour. 98 degrees and a 15 mph breeze out there now.
These hot nights are as big a yield robber as anything by day.
I listened to a crop commentator after the close today and he knows the corn crop south of I 80 is hurt starting about I 35 east.
His reasoning on the weak bean close is because they think with a rain in the next week or so the beans will recover.
The corn crop is set and can only lose yield as the weather dictates, it is too far along to recover.
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Aug 2, 2011 14:51:37 GMT -5
On the wheat I am the least expert of anybody out there.
A really short crop in the USA and a huge section of the central Canadian wheat belt either not planted or a very short crop and now still no significant rain in a huge section of the wheat belt here in this country and only about 30ish days away from wheat planting starting in this country and drier than a popcorn fart.
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Aug 2, 2011 15:11:08 GMT -5
The local cash corn price only moved up about 1/2 of the 30cent move as they adjusted the basis about 15 cents in their favor.
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Aug 2, 2011 17:48:53 GMT -5
Brownfield's summary...
Corn leads grain and oilseed rally
Soybeans were higher on speculative buying and spillover from corn. Weather remains a big factor as the crop condition had a 2% week to week decline and development is behind the normal pace. Corn was sharply higher on fund and commercial buying. The national corn condition rating was unchanged but did dip in some key growing areas and development remains slower than average. The wheat complex was higher on speculative buying and spillover from corn. Chicago led the way up as soft red winter is also used for feed and the pit wants to keep pace with corn.
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Post by looter on Aug 2, 2011 20:49:49 GMT -5
As combines are moving north we are finding wheat yields are frighteningly lower than anybody I know thought. It looks like frost was culprit, as the hilltops aren't bad, but the low ground is a zero.
HRS wheat early yield results are half of what folks perceived. Sad deal....
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Post by glowplug on Aug 2, 2011 21:08:55 GMT -5
Feed wheat and dried distillers are making up a larger share of livestock rations. The feed wheat deal isn't a permanent deal, just a current trend.
Late season rains in the EU will take the pressure off their needs to import feed wheat. They'll have a better wheat crop than first thought. Corn will still be king in USA.
Glowplug
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Post by ses on Aug 2, 2011 21:26:16 GMT -5
Cargill tested our wheat , which seldom happens around here, it was in the mid 13's. I'm guessing most HWW is high in protein since stress makes protein. Maybe they are replacing some bean meal with higher protein wheat too?
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Post by Rich© on Aug 3, 2011 0:14:17 GMT -5
I thought the high protein wheat was used exclusively for certain breads and human consumption only. The lower content for feed supply.
They want a protein boost they use a alfalfa pellet or bean meal still.
Can't see a shortage in beans projected with what I'm seeing produced around here and nebraska and I can't remember but I think it was march next year or december futures that it closed lower today.
Brothers beans are damn neart waist high in the bottom at his house and we are in dryland country with still limited rainfall this year. We arn't in a drought conditioin yet but we are marginal with topsoil moisture.
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