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Wheat
Jul 26, 2011 18:17:42 GMT -5
Post by ses on Jul 26, 2011 18:17:42 GMT -5
It appears to me the wheat market has a lot of upside if this weather pattern doesn't change. Texas and Oklahoma are still burning up. I've heard some guys who have been in central Kansas say they are chopping corn as a salvage operation as far north as Salina. I seems like I 70 is about the dividing line, north is good to OK but south is about done. Very little of the wheat belt is in any kind of shape to plant wheat and we're six weeks from planting.
Thoughts?
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Wheat
Jul 26, 2011 23:23:52 GMT -5
Post by looter on Jul 26, 2011 23:23:52 GMT -5
Overall SD's wheat crop is a dismal disappointment. The good spot in SD is south of Pierre, west of HWY 281, east of hwy 83, and north of I-90. Almost everywhere else is 80 bu straw with 35 bu wheat, which is $10/bu breakeven price. We didn't see this coming. As you go north of Pierre, the best wheat is on hilltop, even if its gravel knolls. Wheat on the top of hills is running triple digits. It looks like the early May frosts hurt us afterall. (Banged up the low ground)
Row crops, where they were planted, look above average.
This is just my observations. Interested to hear what others are experiencing.
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Wheat
Jul 26, 2011 23:30:12 GMT -5
Post by glowplug on Jul 26, 2011 23:30:12 GMT -5
Winter wheat harvest is underway in WI (when it isn't raining, isn't too humid, etc.) Yields and test weight are good but keep in mind that WI is not a major player in wheat. You will find yields running from 40 bu to 100 bu in a typical year. This year I'd guesstimate most have 60-70 bu. yields.
Some wheat varieties stood well, even when 60 mph gusts hit awhile back. Others lodged.
Glowplug
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Wheat
Jul 27, 2011 3:16:22 GMT -5
Post by ses on Jul 27, 2011 3:16:22 GMT -5
My wheat was crap. Just north of me one county tyhere's thousands of acres that never say a combine. It looks good from the road but the heads are blank. Ours looked like 30 bu but went in the single digits and teens mostly. Protein was good though, 13.5.
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Wheat
Jul 28, 2011 7:37:59 GMT -5
Post by ses on Jul 28, 2011 7:37:59 GMT -5
I wonder how the cash corn bids will affect wheat planting intentions this fall? Might be a lot of people who will drop wheat and wait until next spring to do their planting.
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Wheat
Jul 28, 2011 8:04:28 GMT -5
Post by glowplug on Jul 28, 2011 8:04:28 GMT -5
That's a million dollar question, ses. There's some winter wheat grown in WI but we're a minor player. I like it as a rotation crop but I didn't plant any last Sept. I'll decide after I combine my soybeans.
What do others think?
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Wheat
Jul 28, 2011 22:10:52 GMT -5
Post by looter on Jul 28, 2011 22:10:52 GMT -5
This just ain't right.... Check out Mar Chi wheat vs Mar corn.... 70 cents??? Really??? What sense does that make?
What I see happening up and down the 100th meridian is an enormous swap to row crop at the expense of HRW. We had plenty of rain this year, but a bit of frost in early May that prison-raped our wheat as it turns out. Nobody expect a couple folks were concerned about frost injury, as we were so far behind this spring anyway.
There is a singular thing farmers do each and every year... and that is what they wish they had done the year before. We are gonna have $8.73 into growing each of the bushels of wheat we will grow, and with recent rains, the northern HRW belt might have a max of $3.16/bu into growing corn. Even less if we catch more rain.
Nobody is gonna bury wheat seed this fall.
So look at that 70 cent spread on Mar SRW vs Mar corn as a function of a %. When has the % differential been this tight this far into the future? What are the odds that spread won't return to historic mean by Valentines Day?
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