Post by Hobbyfarmer on Feb 2, 2012 9:16:40 GMT -5
by Duane Lowry
Thursday, February 2, 2012
OPENING CALL:
Corn= lower, Wheat= lower, Soybeans= lower.
*At 6:41 am> Night session results: Corn= 7 lower, Wheat= 11 3/4 lower, Soybeans= 8 1/2 lower.
*Export Sales data will be released at 7:30. Here are the trade estimates: Wheat= 500-700 tmt, Corn= 700-1100 tmt, Soybeans= 450-750 tmt, Soymeal= 100-200 tmt, Soyoil= 0-15 tmt.
Weather offers favorable/acceptable conditions for Brazil and Argentina.
Wheat will start lower on overnight weakness, which has values 20 cents off yesterday morning's high. The Ukraine freeze emotional event of yesterday appears to have produced a culmination event and top to the recent price rally. Technical conditions should inspire a correction event to unfold during the next few weeks, but choppy trade will remain the rule.
Corn will start lower on overnight weakness. Price action says we have topped this market for a while. Trader sentiment remains bearish, but most were chased to the sidelines yesterday. Expect selling interest to build near yesterday's settlement price, limiting short-term recovery from the overnight losses. Downside could be very notable during the next month.
Soybeans will start lower on overnight weakness. News is limited. The fundamental backdrop remains bearish and ready to justify any break at any time. Technical conditions suggest limited ability to challenge yesterday's highs. Overall conditions warn that downside risk during the next month could be a real flushing break, something more than 50 cents and possibly near the December lows?
In summary, we have defined short-term upside parameters with the last several days of trade. Technical conditions warn of a significant downside price risk during the next month, with fundamental factors offering little to thwart such an event. Producers need to recognize the merit of short-term sales and a rejection of such may mean having to wait for a spring/summer weather fear before returning to levels higher than current values. At 6:40 this morning: Crude was down $1.13, Gold was down $3.70, Dow Index was down 18 and the US $ was up 22.
CORN:
Barge Values: Feb= +71 H
CH: Support= 6.10, Resistance= 6.41-45
**PROFILE: March Corn> The finishing touches on the defining of this top are taking shape. Current levels need to be searched for selling opportunities. Overall conditions warn of notable downside risk during the next month.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
OPENING CALL:
Corn= lower, Wheat= lower, Soybeans= lower.
*At 6:41 am> Night session results: Corn= 7 lower, Wheat= 11 3/4 lower, Soybeans= 8 1/2 lower.
*Export Sales data will be released at 7:30. Here are the trade estimates: Wheat= 500-700 tmt, Corn= 700-1100 tmt, Soybeans= 450-750 tmt, Soymeal= 100-200 tmt, Soyoil= 0-15 tmt.
Weather offers favorable/acceptable conditions for Brazil and Argentina.
Wheat will start lower on overnight weakness, which has values 20 cents off yesterday morning's high. The Ukraine freeze emotional event of yesterday appears to have produced a culmination event and top to the recent price rally. Technical conditions should inspire a correction event to unfold during the next few weeks, but choppy trade will remain the rule.
Corn will start lower on overnight weakness. Price action says we have topped this market for a while. Trader sentiment remains bearish, but most were chased to the sidelines yesterday. Expect selling interest to build near yesterday's settlement price, limiting short-term recovery from the overnight losses. Downside could be very notable during the next month.
Soybeans will start lower on overnight weakness. News is limited. The fundamental backdrop remains bearish and ready to justify any break at any time. Technical conditions suggest limited ability to challenge yesterday's highs. Overall conditions warn that downside risk during the next month could be a real flushing break, something more than 50 cents and possibly near the December lows?
In summary, we have defined short-term upside parameters with the last several days of trade. Technical conditions warn of a significant downside price risk during the next month, with fundamental factors offering little to thwart such an event. Producers need to recognize the merit of short-term sales and a rejection of such may mean having to wait for a spring/summer weather fear before returning to levels higher than current values. At 6:40 this morning: Crude was down $1.13, Gold was down $3.70, Dow Index was down 18 and the US $ was up 22.
CORN:
Barge Values: Feb= +71 H
CH: Support= 6.10, Resistance= 6.41-45
**PROFILE: March Corn> The finishing touches on the defining of this top are taking shape. Current levels need to be searched for selling opportunities. Overall conditions warn of notable downside risk during the next month.
