Jan. 3'rd Market Open Up or Down ????

[kwestfarms]

Up... down...or sidesways I'm guessing up to open but then who knows!! John

[Hobbyfarmer]

No rain in S.A. for the next week in the southern half of the continent. Will start to be a larger and larger factor in the near by months. I am thinking 35 to 45% reduction in the drought areas from forecast bushels.

This will most likely cause a creep up in prices. Bet it will be steadily higher by herks and jerks.

doesn't open till 9:30am cst. Pleanty of time to gather news or lack of in the morning.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Just posted on another site... The picts did not follow here but they are not a pretty sight. I think 15 to 20 cent up. Brazil may become an importer of corn as well as ethanol. Their livestock industry has been ramping up in the last 5 years and could very well need more than they will grow this year domestically.

Jan 3rd

Argentina update

Extremely high temperatures, drying winds and lack of accumulated rainfall in December (not exceeding 20 mm in much of the region) has put the corn production on a yellow alert , and farmers agonizing waiting for rain in the coming week.

To the northwest of Pampa core region, where the last millimeters of rain (22/12) were more encouraging, and corn were planted later, the situation is better.

Since Thursday, December 22 weak and isolated rainfall developed over the core region . The accumulated vary significantly by presenting a weekly rain of more than 20 mm concentrated in the strip east of Santa Fe. The most important record is found in Irigoyen (Santa Fe), with a weekly cumulative 32.4 mm. The rest of the region received rain, but below 5 mm, which continues to aggravate the water shortage across the region. Only attenuated the increased demand of water was the lower air temperature significantly lower in this period compared to the previous.

In general, the corn crop is in good to fair condition It is in flowering stage, with many lots already filling, and exhibiting worsening symptoms from water stress. What are they? Pollination failures, loss of basal leaves, loss of leaves that fall short of the pin and above. Also lots that have not formed the ear, and even it is noteworthy that those going to silage plots were not included in the required volume to justify it. The affected crop is the one sown in early September.

The most difficult areas are those that had less rain in November and were marginalized in precipitation of December 22, as is the case of southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. Typical of the latter is the General Pinto, where the situation is most serious. Corn there is already being cut into forage for not having formed cobs , mainly in the fields sown during September and early October. The same is true in coastal areas of northeastern Buenos Aires. The later planted has a chance to improve but significant rain is needed in less than ten days.

Soy is reaching the stage where you begin to see the pods. In general, the plants have failed to close the lines . On areas more complicated that were sown later, you begin to see spots, areas of drought and loss of plants. In general, soybeans is resisting the adverse conditions of weather, what could be called good to fair condition. However, yield potential deterioration is already in the cards.

The most serious situation is the ability to complete second-seeded soybean plantings . In the southern province of Santa Fe and in several areas of northern Buenos Aires up to 60 to 70% of the plantings are still in the waiting and you have to add many acres planted where germination failed and must be replanted.


The situation at the moment is far from the fierce gravity that had the 2008/09 drought cycle, when the soybean crop was only 31 million tonnes and maize at 13.1 million, about half of the forecasts for the current campaign.

In the west of Buenos Aires the first soybean crop is the most affected, with very little development, loss of plants caused by low humidity and high temperatures necrosing the edges of the leaves and systematic attacks of insects.

Meanwhile, in many areas the sowing of grain, which occupy about 19 million hectares, is paralyzed by the lack of water.

Nationally , farmers have completed sowing 85% of the planned area for soybeans up to date , jan 3rd.

With the situation as it is right now, it is expected a loss of 2 mln tons of soybean crop production for every passing week from now on without timely rains.







Corn field in La Carlota county, Cordoba



Brazil

Consulting firm Celeres and Abiove from Brazil yesterday kept their initial estimates for the current Brz crop at between 74-75 mln tons ( same as last USDA dec report) .They both have also acknowledged that their estimates are very conservative as due to weather problems they prefer to wait for the actual harvest to gain speed to have a better picture of national yields in the next 30 days . Initial harvest began in the center and west center of BRZ .

During the 3 day wknd , beneficial rains fell in stressed fields of MGDS of up to 40mm , relieving some of the stress and stopped further deterioration. In Parana some rains fell in Sta Catarina and the east of the state. Farmers in Parana estimate that 15-25% on 2/3 of the state crop potential have been lost . In RGDS only isolated showers , some locally heavier ,mostly disappointed again.



Paraguay

The first official figure came out yest from the Chamber of the country , placing the crop at 7,2-7,5 mln tons from an initial estimate of 8,7-9,2 mln tons. The Chamber also acknowledged that figures are preliminary and “mostly subject to further reductions.







Soybean field affected by drought in Alto Parana , Paraguay



Summary

In our opinion ….hard , very hard to see december USDA crop estimates of 136 mln tons for the 3 countries combined come true. We continue to believe , as said 15 days ago , that conservatively we lost 8-10 mln tons already in SA .

[acfarmer]

Seems that the grains are up pretty good right now.

[Dave-ECIA]

SA is forecast to get rainfall next week. IF that happens and IF USDA continues to play games with the crop report coming out on the 12th, we will certainly go back and test those $5.80 lows. And fast.

I don't have very many un-priced bushels right now, but I'm going to protect them with puts when the rain forecast in SA firms up, maybe the day it rains. Should be cheap insurance and a potential to pocket +/- 80 cents if that move happens.

It's interesting to me we're solidly trading a weather market. It's just that the weather is happening in a different hemisphere.

[Grainbelt]

Dave,

If it rains or the forecast firms up, won't it be too late to buy those puts?

[Dave-ECIA]

Today might be a good day to start layering on some protection. We're only a few cents off the top of the latest run.

I never try to hit the peak or valley. I tend to let trends begin to establish, then make my move.