Post by Hobbyfarmer on Dec 22, 2011 9:57:10 GMT -5
We may get some rains in SA in the next days, weeks , months. We hope and pray for .
But, saying that , and assuming everthing turns out perfect weatherwise till the end of the season, we already lost 8 to 10 millions tons of beans in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil combined.
Early planted beans are almost dead in a wide area on those 3 countries. Even we get good weather to "think" about the possibility of replanting them ( and we have abt a couple weeks to achieve that, not more ) , those would be low yield - short cicle varities.
1) In Argentina abt 15-20% of intended acreage has not been planted yet . They have till abt jan 15th to plant (low yield seeds) .
2) In Brazil you have the north and center producing states OK . Parana and RGDS under a lot of stress . In RGDS 40 % of the corn is lost. Some farmers are already combining it for milk producing cows. I cant rarely see them replacing those fields with beans as I read in some news. Lack of time and seed availability the main hurdles. But , in case they do, again... low yield seeds.
3) In Paraguay , with a ttl estimated production of 9 million tons , 20% is already toasted. There is turn around on those.
So, forget abt SA record crop.
the 8-10 million tons I said is a very conservative figure with the situation we are in right now . Plus 100s heat , spotty rains . That would equate into just 6 - 7 % of initial crop estimates fror SA.
But we are assuming an scenario where we all know that soybean is like a weed : very resilient to weather problems. But the yield losses can just be stopped with ideal weather ahead , never reversed already.
But, saying that , and assuming everthing turns out perfect weatherwise till the end of the season, we already lost 8 to 10 millions tons of beans in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil combined.
Early planted beans are almost dead in a wide area on those 3 countries. Even we get good weather to "think" about the possibility of replanting them ( and we have abt a couple weeks to achieve that, not more ) , those would be low yield - short cicle varities.
1) In Argentina abt 15-20% of intended acreage has not been planted yet . They have till abt jan 15th to plant (low yield seeds) .
2) In Brazil you have the north and center producing states OK . Parana and RGDS under a lot of stress . In RGDS 40 % of the corn is lost. Some farmers are already combining it for milk producing cows. I cant rarely see them replacing those fields with beans as I read in some news. Lack of time and seed availability the main hurdles. But , in case they do, again... low yield seeds.
3) In Paraguay , with a ttl estimated production of 9 million tons , 20% is already toasted. There is turn around on those.
So, forget abt SA record crop.
the 8-10 million tons I said is a very conservative figure with the situation we are in right now . Plus 100s heat , spotty rains . That would equate into just 6 - 7 % of initial crop estimates fror SA.
But we are assuming an scenario where we all know that soybean is like a weed : very resilient to weather problems. But the yield losses can just be stopped with ideal weather ahead , never reversed already.