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Post by linsal on Dec 3, 2011 9:11:48 GMT -5
on another website. It seems that our USDA has now decided to implement the 400K SCC limit starting January 1, 2012. I think some dairy farmers are going to struggle with this. More information can be found here: nmpf.org/washington_watch/labeling/SCCI was curious, so I looked for SCC data by state and found this: www.dairyherd.com/dairy-news/latest/Somatic-cell-count-in-DHI-herds-averaged-228000-in-2010-118509084.htmlThe graphic in the previous link is very telling...and so is some of the content of the article. If I read it correctly, 18 percent of the dairy herds in the US exceeded 400K SCC which were on DHI in 2010. I believe in producing high quality milk, but this seems to have the potential to throw milk production in the US on it's head. Let's say that 10% of the milk being produced in the US simply goes away in 2012 (cows go to slaughter), how right is JR going to be that milk prices are going to "shoot the moon"? We've been told that 1 and 2% swings in milk production have a devastating effect on producer prices...I can only imagine what this can mean. And think of the impact on dairy farm support infrastructure in the highlighted states....there almost certainly is going to be an impact in that arena. "May you live in interesting times" seems to be appropriate.
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Post by linsal on Dec 3, 2011 9:24:38 GMT -5
I found this interesting: To determine if specific producers would have a problem following a 400,000 cells/ml restriction, Schukken further examined data from the Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA). The analysis looked at individual cow cell count data from four federal milk orders.
The milk accounted for in the survey totaled 86.1 billion pounds in 353,578 shipments of bulk tanks from 32,854 producers. Of that total, 2.4 percent of the milk shipped contained less than 100,000 cells/ml-accounting for 0.5 of the producers analyzed. One step further, 40.1 percent of the milk had less than 200,000 cells/ml. That means that 9.6 percent of the nation's producers marketed milk with an SCC of less than 200,000.
Schukken was most concerned with the 400,000 cells/ml level. In that tier, 89 percent of the milk from 74.7 percent of the shipments met the threshold. Of most concern, only 50.1 percent of the producers met the requirement. That means that half of the nation's dairies had a cell count greater than 400,000 at least once per year.
Source: www.farmandranchguide.com/news/dairy/schukken-calls-scc-a-realistic-goal-for-u-s-dairy/article_e6eb72e3-e74e-5d3c-9d58-52b408e1a61a.html
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Post by jrtheoriginal on Dec 3, 2011 9:52:58 GMT -5
Yep Linsal this kinda stuff is gonna send shockwaves thru the industry. BEst part is that it is gonna show that we really don't have the milk buffer that our leaders are always concerned about.
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Post by glowplug on Dec 3, 2011 10:00:02 GMT -5
Okay, I'll play devil's advocate (putting on my dumb-fricker USDA fat over-paid bureaucrat Brooks Bros. suit right now.....dang the cleaner shrunk this suit yet again).........
Okay, so there will be a culling of the national herd of high SCC cows. No problem, even 48 will be eating Stein (advertised as Certified Angus Beef) at the local McHeartAttack. Cow numbers will drop. The CME speculators watch cow numbers so your farmgate milk prices will rise. So far, so good.
Cheese quality and cheese yield should improve (well except that "free" trade lets that foreign MPC crap in here).
Yup, no need to thank me as your unfriendly fat overpaid USDA govt. bureaucrat. My pension bennies alone make me being such a prick all the time worth it.
Daggnabbit, I hate wearing suits........
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Post by bentover on Dec 3, 2011 11:39:20 GMT -5
Gp Get a bigger suit You seem very adept at that gubmerment job You are totally qualified to get those big wages and pensions. The reason your suit don't fit is your wife brings you TOO MANT BEERS. And you are obviously comsuming way too much good Wisconsin cheeses. Timed foor you top switch to Miller Lite Cottage cheese and start selling Pioneer seeds You will be lots busier and have less time for AAF , there by drinkin less beer and getting thinner This medical advice is free but very valuable
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Post by pldairy on Dec 3, 2011 21:24:09 GMT -5
thanks!, gess I am still shocked how this went down, thought this was a free country? gess I shell say wlekometo das americka................oct tung
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Post by larrydc on Dec 5, 2011 22:26:11 GMT -5
This will be interesting but with good cull cow prices farmers with problems should cleaning house anyway. BTW GP I found some 13 year old cheddar at Renards, $21.95 a pound but so worth it!!!!!!!!!!!!! Larry
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Post by glowplug on Dec 5, 2011 23:11:32 GMT -5
Awesome larry, I'd drop the bridge over the Fort Cheddar moat and fire up the crop sprayer bi-plane to trade you some beer for that cheese.
But I'm a bit tired from the Packer pre-game tailgate party, beer, brats, burgers, asst. toppings, and of course, WI cheese.
Maybe there isn't room on your runway with larryForce One parked there? Anyhoooo, let's plan on getting the Dawg Pack together at Oshkosh this spring. Since I'm persona non gratta on AW, you guys will be the ones getting the word out.
Expecting to see a lot of you titty tuggers there.
As to the 400 scc, we all know it was going to get stuffed upon us. All hail "free" trade and the EU has had it for years. First they corrupt our youth with Euro-weenie soccer (instead of playing USA football, baseball, and basketball. Then they try to kill us with Fiat cars and tractors. Ain't nothing good ever come out of the EU since our ancestors fled the place.
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Post by jrtheoriginal on Dec 6, 2011 5:50:04 GMT -5
ANybody who was gonna sell a herd of cows that SCC of around 400,000 probably waited to long now. Also heifers are gonna be thru the roof expensive!
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Post by JoshuaGA on Dec 6, 2011 19:28:15 GMT -5
ANybody who was gonna sell a herd of cows that SCC of around 400,000 probably waited to long now. Also heifers are gonna be thru the roof expensive! CWT could have saved alot of money and done this instead. Personally I don't see it being that unreasonable a demand, several coops have already had the limit in place. HSUS is a much bigger threat than the limit is, IMO.
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Post by iadave on Feb 4, 2012 23:03:43 GMT -5
From the numbers I see probably what will happen is the farmer will get a steep discount and the milk will all be blended together to meet the requirement. No big deal unless you are the one getting a smaller check so some one else gets a bigger one.
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Post by pldairy on Feb 5, 2012 19:16:49 GMT -5
From the numbers I see probably what will happen is the farmer will get a steep discount and the milk will all be blended together to meet the requirement. No big deal unless you are the one getting a smaller check so some one else gets a bigger one. thats not whats going to happen,if you cant get it down under 400K, your done
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Post by Wheels on Feb 17, 2012 0:51:19 GMT -5
From the numbers I see probably what will happen is the farmer will get a steep discount and the milk will all be blended together to meet the requirement. No big deal unless you are the one getting a smaller check so some one else gets a bigger one. thats not whats going to happen,if you cant get it down under 400K, your done Not from what I've been told, worst case scenario you pay a small fine and life pretty much goes on. Whole thing is pretty much a joke the way the people from the milk plant explain it. One test a month is all that's required to meet Europe's "high" standards, I'd really like to pull a bunch tank samples over there, likely isn't any better than the milk we produce. Wheels
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Post by pldairy on Feb 19, 2012 13:45:53 GMT -5
thats not whats going to happen,if you cant get it down under 400K, your done Not from what I've been told, worst case scenario you pay a small fine and life pretty much goes on. Whole thing is pretty much a joke the way the people from the milk plant explain it. One test a month is all that's required to meet Europe's "high" standards, I'd really like to pull a bunch tank samples over there, likely isn't any better than the milk we produce. Wheels I am also one who would like to know what happends over seas,and what we are not being told
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Post by cousinit on Feb 25, 2012 15:57:42 GMT -5
Wheels is correct. Even we will be ok under this new method.
No worries.
No big drop in milk production in the country. Smoke and mirrors, boys, smoke and mirrors.
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