Spot and forward

[iowa55]

contracting has slowed considerably
with the collapse in futures values (approximately
$0.65) since the November Crop report. Conversely,
basis levels continue to strengthen due to end users
with inadequate inventory levels attempting to
encourage nearby movement. ECB and WCB basis
figures appreciated 2 to 3]cents at various locations
over the course of the last week. As of Mondayfs Crop
Progress report the US corn harvest was 96%
complete versus 99% a year ago and 88% on average.
The one state still lagging is Ohio. Ohiofs corn harvest
improved to 69% versus 51% last week and the 5]year
average of 88%. The mostly dry week in the WCB
allowed producers to apply fertilizer applications and
till soils. Producers in Indiana and Ohio are still
working at finishing up the corn harvest.

I tend to focus on trends rather than actual figures because the
figures tend to change every day (and they will confuse you, like a
dog chasing his tail). Right now I see a brewing catastrophe in
Europe. The US is in bad shape; make no mistake about it; however
wefre not as bad yet as Greece, Italy, etc. This tells me that although
the Dollar isnft worth much itfs still worth more than the Euro. This
should prevent an all]out freefall in the US dollar. This means that
crude oil over $100 is probably unsustainable given the current
Dollar/ Euro currency relationship. Furthermore the latest downward
revision to US Q3 GDP figures also suggests that US consumers
cannot afford $100 crude oil. Whatfs this mean for Ag? If crudefs
upside is limited so is cornfs regardless of the underlying
fundamentals. Cornfs too expensive overseas and that too is due to a
combination of US $ influences and cheap world feed wheat.
Itfs a huge puzzlecthe entire globecgo ahead and start piecing it
together on your own. However just know, tomorrow the sizes and
shapes of the puzzle pieces change. Not fair is it.

[Bristol Hillbilly]

I tend to think very micro ex county or 5 county area, which I realize is bad in a global trading market place. Our local ethanol plant and elevator told me all harvest they were slow, so much that we have had a +.05 -.10 basis for the last month. I can't believe that on farm storage increased that much in a year, so long story short, I don't think the crop was there and USDA along in about January will confirm my suspicions. Just my little thinking here.
One question, If our dollar gets weaker won't that encourage someone to buy more of our grain or are you saying currency worldwide is checking up?

[iowa55]

Most all currencies are getting weaker. All countries of consequence are trying to print their way out of this (will not work this time any better than it has any other time it was tried).
With China less than on sound footing and the Euro zone imploding, all this with a MF Global theft ring that has left hundreds of hedgers and traders with their funds gone,This can't be good in the near term.

I recieved an e-mail I wish I could copy and paste here from/about a DR Wheeler that kind of echos my feelings on many of these subjects. It is in a format that I don't know how to get the job done. I would share it with any who would like to have it just email me with the address in my profile.

[iowa55]

I am becoming very pessimistic about the well being of the country and economy in general and the World.

My advice is to get your financial house in order because I can see the very real posibility of little or no new credit available. The powers that be will conviscate much of the savings and that is the base of a healthy economy.

[iowa55]

Decline in Commodities Is 'Artificial': Jim Rogers
Published: Wednesday, 23 Nov 2011 | 9:52 AM ET By: CNBC.com


The recent decline in commodity prices has little to do with fundamentals and everything to do with the collapse of brokerage firm MF Global, says renowned investor Jim Rogers, who described the sell-off as artificial.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"With MF Global going bankrupt – which was a gigantic commodities firm – there was a lot of artificial forced liquidation of commodities. People have to sell whether they like it or not. It's artificial selling right now," Rogers told CNBC on Wednesday.

The CRB Jefferies Index – which serves as a measure of the broad commodities complex – has fallen 4 percent since MF Global declared bankruptcy nearly 4 weeks ago. Agricultural commodities have been the hardest hit, with rice futures falling more than 14 percent and wheat futures down 9 percent in the period.

Rogers says the drop isn’t surprising. "This happened before in 2008, when Lehman and AIG went bankrupt, they were both huge in commodities and everybody had to sell," he said, referring to the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008, when the CRB Index fell by half in a matter of months. Prices have rebounded since, climbing nearly 60 percent from March 2009 to May this year, when the sector took a hit again on concerns over the headwinds facing the global economy.

Rogers remains bullish on the sector, saying investors will benefit whether the global economy improves or not.

"I'm long commodities and currencies, because if the world gets better, the shortages in commodities will make sure I make money; if the world economy doesn't get better, I'd rather own commodities because they're going to print money," he said, referring to the easy monetary policy central banks have taken in the last few years to stimulate anemic growth.

"Throughout history, when things have gone wrong, they print money...when they print money, you should own silver [XAG= 31.96 0.29 (+0.92%)], you should own rice, you should own real assets."


Why Jim Rogers Is Still a Commodities BullUS to Experience Stagflation Worse Than 1970s: Jim RogersJPMorgan Downgrades Commodities to Underweight
Rogers says he is using the recent drop in prices to accumulate agricultural commodities, and is waiting to add positions in gold [XAU= 1696.59 3.80 (+0.22%)]. While he expects the yellow metal to reach $2,400 sometime in the next five to twenty years, he believes its run-up in the last 11 years has been "unusual" and needs a "rest".

"Gold could go down a fair bit more...but I'm certainly going to buy more gold if it goes down and silver."

This not a time to buy stocks, Rogers added, and says he is shorting the asset class.

"This is like the 1970s, in the 1970s stocks did nothing. Commodities went through the roof. I'm short stocks and long commodities for the most part."