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Post by looter on Oct 1, 2011 3:08:53 GMT -5
I've maintained my negative bias on crude oil since the YOY double last Spring and I think fear rather than greed will rule emotions until mid Feb.
I think the market is going to discount Libya production coming back, (or at least half of it). There won't be any bullish news in the oil world until we either see another Arab Spring, or else Bernanke fires up more helicopters on an election year. I'm expecting both sometime next year.
On paper, this means nothing changes for corn demand. The ever-growing ethanol mandate doesn't allow less E production, so stuffs gonna get mighty interesting when cheap fuel gets thrown in the mix. We actually gotta speed up E production next year to meet the mandate regardless of crude oil price.
A lot of folks said the mandate gets waved when corn crop fails. Who decides that? Sentiment on crop size varies by the hour. By the time crop size is known, its ancient history.
We are headed for weirdness.
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Post by linsal on Oct 1, 2011 8:16:54 GMT -5
Looter---What say you about the latest oil discovery in the North Sea? What impact do you forsee this having on crude oil prices?
Norway's Statoil has received a huge boost to its reserves with the announcement that two previous North Sea oil discoveries are connected which may represent the biggest find in the Norwegian continental shelf in 30 years.
Statoil said in a statement Tuesday that the Aldous and Avaldsnes oil discoveries together contain between 500 million and 1.2 billion barrels of oil — significantly more than previously thought.
Statoil owns a 40 percent stake in both discoveries and is the operator of Aldous.
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Post by looter on Oct 1, 2011 8:39:56 GMT -5
Looter---What say you about the latest oil discovery in the North Sea? What impact do you forsee this having on crude oil prices? Norway's Statoil has received a huge boost to its reserves with the announcement that two previous North Sea oil discoveries are connected which may represent the biggest find in the Norwegian continental shelf in 30 years.
Statoil said in a statement Tuesday that the Aldous and Avaldsnes oil discoveries together contain between 500 million and 1.2 billion barrels of oil — significantly more than previously thought.
Statoil owns a 40 percent stake in both discoveries and is the operator of Aldous.
A 1 billion barrel discovery is the biggest discovery in the North Sea in 30 years? Well no wonder they are losing 15% of production per year! That's not a drop in the bucket, a billion barrel offshore discovery is a drop in the lake. Even if all 1 billion barrels were recoverable, which at most 50% are, its not a lot of oil in the big picture. It will take a decade to drain that field, meaning the oil will get produced slowly, and it will merely slow the irreversible decline in North Sea oil production, not stop it. The 2005 record for most crude oil ever produced still looks quite safe.....
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Post by linsal on Oct 1, 2011 11:29:36 GMT -5
Ya know...if crude goes back to $50-something a barrel, that might be enough to get the economy going again and get Obummer re-elected....
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Post by jrtheoriginal on Oct 1, 2011 12:35:01 GMT -5
Linsal that is the beauty of a fiat currency. For a while you can play the shell game. But sometime someone is gonna ask to see the pea. When that time comes they will find out it got replaced by a nugget of POOP!
BUt till then the political class will play around with this thing thinking they can master the world. If gas gets under 2.50 Obamas negatives go down by 25% at least! That makes him the shoe in.
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Post by acfarmer on Oct 2, 2011 7:56:12 GMT -5
Ya know...if crude goes back to $50-something a barrel, that might be enough to get the economy going again and get Obummer re-elected.... I doubt it. You dont see gas go down like it used to when oil went down . Take right now for instance. What is oil? in the high 70s a barrell and I filled up with some 3.73 diesel yesterday. Somthing isnt right with that picture.
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Post by looter on Oct 2, 2011 9:29:09 GMT -5
Ya know...if crude goes back to $50-something a barrel, that might be enough to get the economy going again and get Obummer re-elected.... I doubt it. You dont see gas go down like it used to when oil went down . Take right now for instance. What is oil? in the high 70s a barrell and I filled up with some 3.73 diesel yesterday. Somthing isnt right with that picture. Almost all US refineries are paying over $100 for crude. (Brent) It's only the handful of refiners near Cushing, OK that are paying the NYMEX price. Those refiners using WTI oil in OK are having a party!
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Post by acfarmer on Oct 2, 2011 13:44:05 GMT -5
Almost all US refineries are paying over $100 for crude. (Brent) Why would that be?
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Post by thirsty on Oct 2, 2011 19:22:09 GMT -5
Almost all US refineries are paying over $100 for crude. (Brent) Why would that be? WTI is a rigged market. Just about every blend of conventional crude oil on the planet trades $20-25 higher than WTI.
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Post by looter on Oct 2, 2011 20:25:45 GMT -5
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Post by ses on Oct 2, 2011 21:15:28 GMT -5
Almost all US refineries are paying over $100 for crude. (Brent) Why would that be? AC to answer your question, if the crude makes it to one of the coasts or the Gulf it is traded on the world market. If it gets sent to Cushing Oklahoma it get traded at a discount because of the transportation costs. Kinda like the basis on grain should work. I think the tanks in Oklahoma are about to run over from all of the new West Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Canadian oil that gets piped there. If the pipeline from Canada to the Gulf gets built, and I'm sure it will, we will be sending US crude all over the world and the US consumer will be bidding for it the same as the Japanese or Chinese or who ever. IMO one day soon the Okie crude will be trading about the same as the other does.
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Post by ses on Oct 2, 2011 21:19:43 GMT -5
BTW I think what's going in the US crude oil industry is stupidity beyond compare. 51% of all of the drilling rigs operate in the US. Why in HELL do we think we need to piss through our oil reserves like there was no tomorrow. One day we will wake up and realize we don't have any oil left. A country totally dependent on others for their energy is not a very safe and secure country anymore.
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Post by glowplug on Oct 2, 2011 21:39:47 GMT -5
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Post by ses on Oct 2, 2011 21:46:00 GMT -5
Glow, if you want to end our dependance on Mid East oil just shut down the war machine. And...why in Hell would you NOT want to import Arab oil? Their wells will be going dry soon enough. No more oil no more Arab problems. Nobody will give a damn about a bunch of sand fleas if they don't have oil. Use theirs first and save ours.
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Post by glowplug on Oct 2, 2011 22:44:46 GMT -5
"no more Arab problems" Study up on the caliphate that muslims want. You infadels really need to read the Koran. Every dollar we export to buy their oil, means one less dollar circulating within our US economy. Producing our own energy is good for the US economy, employs more people, boosts the spending power of US citizens.
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