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Post by Dave-ECIA on Sept 21, 2011 8:32:54 GMT -5
I don't have the chart in front of me, but some looks I had at it over the weekend indicate to me that we'll see initial support around $13.00. But.... The overall commodity complex is under pressure. Look at copper, it seems to lead the way. Currently it's down over 10% since 9/1 and is continuing to pull the other metals lower with it. What does that mean for beans?? Right now, I could go either way with it. Outside influence vs. harvest pressure. I suspect that harvest pressure will be negligible this year. The outside influence scares me a bit. Until we can shore up the metals, the grains will suffer. I'm off to haul some fat calves to the sale barn. Maybe my mood will improve by noon tomorrow after the sale.  D |
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Sept 22, 2011 15:16:56 GMT -5
Well, they just went smokin' past that support point. Next comes in around $12.56. The predictors I'm watching are still screaming sell. This ride ain't over in the near-term. However for it to make a significant move to the downside, we have to do significant damage to the technicals. barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZSX11&t=BAR&size=M&v=2&g=1&p=D&d=X&qb=1&style=technicalWe're right at our long-term support we have established since mid-March. |
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Sept 26, 2011 12:00:49 GMT -5
Just re-checked my numbers this morning for Nov. Beans.
The next level of support doesn't come in until $12.08. We've got some more downside risk. Hint: If you need so sell some beans in the next 30 days, sell a portion now.
The long term trend is setting up into a negative downward trend. The only thing I see to change that is if our yields come in significantly below expectations.
I'd also expect the Chinese to keep playing games by looking for sources other than the US for soybean needs. Don't frick with them, they own us.
Long-term, beans still look like a buy. Maybe beyond the 50-100 day indicators, they still look like a winner.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Sept 26, 2011 13:52:00 GMT -5
Not to be a smart-ass, but your guess is as good as mine at this point on actual price, I'll give you my idea of trend. December is the pivot point in my mind. I'll tell you why.
50-100 days out, we should see a return to the upside. The general chatter I hear is that bean acres will shrink and yields will be close to estimate. If that is true, supply tightens. It will take until November to sort out actual yields.
I expect to see a return to the upside during the latter point of harvest. The real fireworks will not happen until after the 1st of the year. Lots of talk about February.
Right now, I've sold short the remaining bushels at an average of $13.43 to hedge my downside risk. When I get in the field and see what actual yields are, I'll adjust. Also, I'm looking to buy back those sold bushels (I have no storage for soys) to take advantage of anticipated rising board prices going into summer 2012. That will probably happen when I find the harvest low which I expect to see under $12.25.
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