|
Post by lafarmer345 on Sept 7, 2011 9:09:40 GMT -5
Most of our seed corn comes from Illinois and Indiana. There are rumors floating around that corn seed supply could be tight or maybe even short for 2012. Do any of you guys have any dealings with production seed and may can shed some light on this?
|
|
|
Post by Hobbyfarmer on Sept 7, 2011 9:24:00 GMT -5
An every year rumor designed to get your money early.
|
|
|
Post by lafarmer345 on Sept 7, 2011 9:55:19 GMT -5
Very possible you are correct.
Each company that I deal with, mainly 3, has 2 maybe 3 hybrids that performed extremely well and then a pile that did ok to fair to poor. The seed companies aren't the ones starting the rumors, but rather it's the other retailers around here doing the talking.
|
|
angus1
Hired Hand
Medical doctor, cotton farmer and angus rancher
Posts: 177
|
Post by angus1 on Sept 7, 2011 12:40:19 GMT -5
It may be true with cotton seed , however.
|
|
|
Post by peelergtfb on Sept 7, 2011 12:40:45 GMT -5
I raised seed corn for a lot of years but no longer do that. Rumor mill around here is three of the local fields got zero'd out a few weeks ago.
I'm hearing from my seed dealer that there won't be many supply problems though. Might be their warehouses already have a good supply from last year. Might just be the new numbers that this is the first production year for that will be in short supply.
|
|
SMASH
Hired Hand
doo-rag dude
Posts: 197
|
Post by SMASH on Sept 7, 2011 13:19:43 GMT -5
No talk of it from my reps at FPS. I raise some parent seed. Mowed down a 16ac field 2 weeks ago. Have been told, that's the only field they destroyed.
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Sept 7, 2011 22:31:09 GMT -5
okay, here's the scoop. The Big 4 (DeKalb, Big P, Mycogen and Syngenta) are scrambling to set up winter production in Chile and Argentina. Obviously, this means there will be a good chunk of their seed harvested down there, shipped to USA, rushed through seed conditioning, bagging and delivered in late Spring.
The mid-sized regional I sell for, breeds and grows their varieties here in WI. No problems with supply, no plans to winter grow any varieties (thank God, cause I hate those Spring delays).
Order early if you want certain varieties from whomever. Otherwise you get what is left. Take the early pay discounts, usually it amouts to 1% per month. (The bank won't pay your 12% on money you invest.) Prepay seed and fertilizer will keep your taxes down if you're having a good income year. Hope it works out that way for all of you.
|
|
|
Post by jabber1 on Sept 8, 2011 6:36:57 GMT -5
Peeler nailed it. The tightest hybrids will be those that there was 0 carryover for which are NEW hybrids. New hybrids that perform well are always short in supply.
The winter production has been used in the past by some companies to build supplies that are short in the US. This production is high in cost for seed companies and a pain for seed dealers but actually has worked well for customers. My biggest year of winter production sales was after the 1988 drought. In 1988 they actually used the flying tigers to get some of it here in time.
There are a very few seed fields close to me. Some of those acres just got disced down.
Much of the US seed corn production is on irrigated ground which suggests that the yields will be more stable and will only be reduced by the heat.
One major company was projecting in August that seed yields would average 90% of the "budget" yield. Budget yields of course have some extras supplies built into the seed acres.
|
|
|
Post by glowplug on Sept 8, 2011 9:04:33 GMT -5
But jabber, seed crop yields will be REDUCED by the heat. And it is a fact that seed corn crops are a low yield per acre venture, with "normal" weather.
In fact, many very good corn varieties were nixed from seed production over the years because they sucked at producing seed economically. The good news for farmers is that modern screening technology makes the process more predictable than in the past, but that comes as a cost as well.
Anyhoooooooo, jabber my advice from years ago still stands. You're a good man, too good to represent evil DooooPunt Big P. Look for another independent seed co. that treats their salesmen and farmers with respect.
|
|
|
Post by lafarmer345 on Sept 8, 2011 14:59:45 GMT -5
okay, here's the scoop. The Big 4 (DeKalb, Big P, Mycogen and Syngenta) are scrambling to set up winter production in Chile and Argentina. Obviously, this means there will be a good chunk of their seed harvested down there, shipped to USA, rushed through seed conditioning, bagging and delivered in late Spring. The mid-sized regional I sell for, breeds and grows their varieties here in WI. No problems with supply, no plans to winter grow any varieties (thank God, cause I hate those Spring delays). Order early if you want certain varieties from whomever. Otherwise you get what is left. Take the early pay discounts, usually it amouts to 1% per month. (The bank won't pay your 12% on money you invest.) Prepay seed and fertilizer will keep your taxes down if you're having a good income year. Hope it works out that way for all of you. The late spring thing doesn't work for us here. We will be planting by Feb 25th or so. Corn planted the last week of March is considered late planted. The bulk of our corn is grown in Illinois I think. But then again, I am not in seed production, so it could be grown anywhere.
|
|
|
Post by peelergtfb on Sept 8, 2011 18:28:38 GMT -5
Just because you have a poor commercial production year doesn't necessarily mean the seed crop will be the same. I have seen many times when they were the opposite of each other.
The heat might not have done as much damage in the seed because of the lack of folage trapping the heat in at night
|
|
|
Post by cornandbeef on Sept 8, 2011 19:46:13 GMT -5
In central IL yields are off about 1/3. A few thousand acres will not be picked. Some number will be short. Last years supply is low. We've been picking 3 weeks now.
|
|