Well where to from here

[jrtheoriginal]

Well looks like the august class 3 has expired and now when I look at the ticker I see 18's. NOw don't get me wrong on a cash basis I am still putting money in the bank. But if I charge myself the true value of feedstuffs I am in the red at 18dollar milk. SO with many folks having to write checks for feed how does this market make them continue to produce milk?

Now I do not believe that the market should care about COP only what the demand will pay. However we are in a new era. The supply is about to get shrunk. I think this sept milk will move up to be at least 20 and prolly be back at the august close.

IF that happens shouldn't we be playing the futures market here.

I think we have a reduction in August milk year over year and I am sure that they will revise down July to show a lower yr over yr. number as well.

SO what do you guys think is this the time to start speculatin?

[pldairy]

well Jr ,liked we yacked about the outher day,if they dont pay , they wont have it, and if they do pay,they might get the short end with there buyers , this is a no win deal for everyone
gess I am going to set this one out for now

[jrtheoriginal]

Sept. ones dairy product report is most interesting.

July 2011 Highlights
Total cheese output (excluding cottage cheese) was 859 million pounds, 2.0 percent below July 2010 and 4.0 percent below June 2011.
Italian type cheese production totaled 364 million pounds, 0.4 percent below July 2010 and 4.6 percent below June 2011.
American type cheese production totaled 352 million pounds, 4.3 percent below July 2010 and 3.5 percent below June 2011.
Butter production was 135 million pounds, 21.6 percent above July 2010 but 3.9 percent below June 2011.
Dry milk powders (comparisons with July 2010)
Nonfat dry milk, human - 133 million pounds, up 1.4 percent.
Skim milk powders - 39.7 million pounds, up 75.3 percent.
Whey products (comparisons with July 2010)
Dry whey, total - 81.9 million pounds, down 6.5 percent.
Lactose, human and animal - 85.0 million pounds, up 5.7 percent.
Whey protein concentrate, total - 34.9 million pounds, down 4.2 percent.
Frozen products (comparisons with July 2010)
Ice cream, regular (hard) - 73.2 million gallons, down 4.7 percent

Notice all the things that are down. YEa butter is up but not so much that we took out year ago production levels.

I am wondering when the processors are gonna realize that the milk ain't there?

IF this was 2006 we would be shooting the moon as the consumer fears would not be so profound. But alas here in 2011 every body is scarred tomorrow the nuclear winter of finacial war will hit and we will not have anything to buy food with.

When you really break down the numbers why the worry of cheese surplus?