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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 18, 2011 7:33:35 GMT -5
Rich, not saying there isn't an influence, but they de-coupled a few years back when wheat went crazy.
Used to be, corn and wheat tracked each other by feed valuation. Looking at the charts, they don't track each other in tandem like they did maybe 10 yrs ago.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 18, 2011 14:59:02 GMT -5
Sorry Dave. I am thinking that denny can send my steaks via UPS to Cass county MO I'll let you know how it tastes after I'm done gnawing on the bone of that 32oz t-bone. ;D
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Post by dennycrane on Jul 18, 2011 18:14:23 GMT -5
Yep Dave it looks like you're the winner. Just let me know when and I'll make the reservations. Now, look into your crystal ball and tell where prices are headed the rest of the week so I can pay for that steak.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 18, 2011 20:54:37 GMT -5
Yep Dave it looks like you're the winner. Just let me know when and I'll make the reservations. Now, look into your crystal ball and tell where prices are headed the rest of the week so I can pay for that steak. If I knew that, I wouldn't be screwing around farming and playing on message boards.... I'd be surrounded with cabana girls in nothing but grass skirts bringing me drinks by the pool. LOL!!! I mentioned it before. I sense pressure on the market through the end of the week. The charts can make a case for a low in the 6.70 range later in the week. I still think the market won't react to the dry weather in the central corn belt until next week, although it looks like parts of Illinois got some rain today.
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Jul 18, 2011 21:37:54 GMT -5
rich... I use this a lot ... barchart.com/futures/AllA world class trader told me the overnights don't count till after 3:00AM CDT when the traders get up and can check out all the far East and Europe news etc.
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Post by glowplug on Jul 21, 2011 8:24:50 GMT -5
This is just a thought piece. No endorsement of whether the morning take on the markets will actually be the trading trend.
Glowplug
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are called 2 to 3 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. The market was choppy overnight. Hot and dry weather this week has offered support at times. However, some rain and moderating temperatures are expected this weekend. Rally attempts are being limited by strength in the dollar and weakness in crude oil futures overnight.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are called steady to 1 cent higher. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 1/2 to 3/4 of a cent higher. The soybean market continues to hold in a trading range. Light support is being generated from the hot and dry weather in the Midwest this week and forecast for stressful conditions to return next week after a brief moderation in temperatures and some chances of rain this weekend. Despite some news yesterday of China buying soybeans for the 2011/12 marketing year, export demand has been light recently. Strength in the dollar and weakness in crude oil are expected to limit gains.
Wheat: Wheat futures are called mixed this morning. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was steady to 2 cents higher at the CBOT, 2 1/2 to 4 cents lower at the KCBT and 2 1/4 cents higher at the MGE. Trade was choppy overnight and is expected to be that way during the daily session. The weekly export sales report this morning could provide some direction. Strength in the dollar index is expected to limit gains.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 21, 2011 8:54:21 GMT -5
Looks to me from the charts, the market is looking for a clear direction in recent days. It's kinda twitchy and that is bad news for trend setting.
I've always made the assumption, in the absence of a positive influence the market will gravitate lower. The daily charts for ZC11 still look negative in the near term to me.
Long term, I think there has been enough damage to the crop due to the heat/dry conditions in the central corn belt it will at the very least show support though harvest. The crop condition reports should start reflecting this beginning with the next report.
If it doesn't reflect, we know for sure USDA is trying to manipulate the market. But that's a discussion for another day.
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Post by glowplug on Jul 21, 2011 12:10:14 GMT -5
Midday Report Corn: Corn futures are trading lower at midday. Forecasts for a break in the hot and dry weather pattern over the Corn Belt this weekend is weighing on futures. However, recent weather has most likely already reduced some yield potential, pushing prices to a five-month high on Tuesday. The Weekly Export Sales report this morning reported exports at 35.5 million bushels, which was within pre-report trade expectations. September is 7 1/4 cents lower at $6.80 3/4 and December is 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.73 1/4.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are mixed at midsession. Spillover weakness from corn and weather forecasts calling for temporary break in the hot and dry weather pattern this weekend are weighing on trade at times. However, support is coming from strength in the crude oil market and the Weekly Export Sales report showing sales of 16.3 million bushels, which were above trade expectations. August is 1/2 of a cent lower at $13.77 3/4 while November is 1/2 of a cent higher at $13.84 1/2.
Wheat: Wheat futures are trading lower at midday. Profit-taking from the gains the past two sessions and spillover weakness from corn are weighing on wheat futures. The Weekly Export Sales report released this morning were in line with trade expectations at 14.9 million bushels. Further losses in futures trade are being limited by weakness in the dollar. CBOT September is 14 cents lower at $6.83, KCBT Sep is 15 cents lower at $7.79 and MGE Sep is 14 1/2 cents lower at $8.38 1/4.
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Post by glowplug on Jul 21, 2011 20:07:27 GMT -5
This article has not yet been rated. Corn futures closed lower on Thursday. Forecasts for a break in the hot and dry weather pattern over the Corn Belt this weekend weighed on futures. However, recent weather has most likely already reduced some yield potential, pushing prices to a five-month high on Tuesday. The Weekly Export Sales report this morning reported exports at 35.5 million bushels, which was within pre-report trade expectations. September was 8 3/4 cents lower at $6.79 1/4 and December ended 4 3/4 cents lower at $6.73.
Soybean futures traded higher on Thursday. The market posted small gains after a choppy trading session. Strength in crude oil and weakness in the dollar index pushed prices slightly higher. Some unwinding of long corn/short soybean spreads was also noted. But gains were limited by weather forecasts calling for a temporary break in the hot and dry weather pattern this weekend and the Weekly Export Sales report showing sales of 16.3 million bushels, which were above trade expectations. August closed 2 cents higher at $13.80 1/4 and November was 4 cents higher at $13.88.
Wheat futures were solidly lower on Thursday. Profit-taking from the gains the past two sessions and spillover weakness from corn weighed on wheat futures. The Weekly Export Sales report released this morning were in line with trade expectations at 14.9 million bushels. Further losses in futures trade were avoided due weakness in the dollar index. CBOT September closed 19 3/4 cents lower at $6.77 1/4, KCBT Sep was 19 3/4 cents lower at $7.74 1/4 and MGE Sep ended 19 cents lower at $8.33 3/4.
Cattle futures traded mostly higher on Thursday. Front end contracts were supported by strong export sales data, strength in the stock market and weakness in the dollar. The Weekly Export Sales report showed the second largest weekly beef sales total this year. Beef exports are 35% ahead of year ago levels. However, gains were limited by the $2.66 drop on choice beef prices and ideas that hot weather across much of the U.S. is slowing beef consumption. August closed 40 cents higher at $110.00 and October was 10 cents higher at $115.40.
Lean hog futures closed mixed on Thursday. Front end futures were supported by strength in the cash market and firm pork cutout values. Hot weather has slowed marketings and is forcing packers to raise bids to fill slaughter schedules. However gains in the futures market were limited by ideas that the hot weather over much of the U.S. is slowing pork consumption. August closed 25 cents higher at $98.10 and October was 25 cents higher at $90.65.
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Post by glowplug on Jul 22, 2011 8:18:03 GMT -5
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are called 1 to 2 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 1 1/2 to 2 1/4 cents lower. Trade overnight has been choppy in tight range as most traders appear to be content with current positions. But weather forecast updates today could still influence the market. Some rain and moderating temperatures are expected in the Corn Belt this weekend, but more heat and dryness is expected next week. Weekend rainfall will be very important for much of the crop's yield potential if dry conditions develop again next week.
Soybeans: Soybean futures are called 1 to 2 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 1 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower. The market held in a tight range overnight as traders seem comfortable with positions for now. However, weather forecasts will continue to be watched for direction. For now, forecasts call for some good rainfall over the Midwest this weekend before warm and dry conditions are forecast to develop next week again. Weakness is being limited by export business with China last week.
Wheat: Wheat futures are called 1 to 3 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:45 am CT was 1 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower at the CBOT, 1 1/2 to 3 cents lower at the KCBT and 2 to 2 3/4 cents higher at the MGE. The market was drifting mostly lower overnight, but losses are being limited by short-covering following the strong losses on Thursday. The market has been pressured recently by concern about the competitiveness of U.S. wheat on the global market. The Russian Agricultural Minister reaffirmed last week that it expected to be a leading grain exporter this season due to a good harvest.
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Dan_wcIN®™©
4-H er
Official Forum Grawlixtard
Posts: 32
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Post by Dan_wcIN®™© on Jul 22, 2011 21:32:47 GMT -5
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Post by glowplug on Jul 25, 2011 7:41:37 GMT -5
Opening Calls Corn: Corn futures are expected to open 10 cents to 14 cents lower on Monday. The lower prices are caused by both weekend rains in some growing areas and the gloomy outside markets. The collapse of the debt ceiling talks in Washington over the weekend will probably pressure stock markets around the world with spillover to commodity markets. Monday afternoon's crop progress report is expected to show declines in the condition of the crop during last week's extreme heat.
Soybeans: Soybean futures prices are expected to open down 12 cents to 15 cents on Monday. Prices overnight were generally 12 to 13 cents lower. Good rains in parts of the Midwest over the weekend will contribute to the pressure on soybean futures Monday morning. Bearish sentiment will also come from the collapse of the debt ceiling talks over the weekend. Equity and commodity markets are expected to be affected by the possibility that Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling, leading to a U.S. default.
Wheat: Wheat futures prices are expected to open 5 to 9 cents lower on Monday. Futures prices were 8 cents lower overnight with spillover pressure from corn and soybeans and concern about the budget impasse in Washington. It is possible that traders will bail out of positions in commodity markets as we approach the debt ceiling deadline. Kansas City futures prices see less pressure because of the drought situation in the Plains states which shows little sign of easing.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jul 25, 2011 7:57:44 GMT -5
Ok, I'm gonna scootch a little way out on a limb here.
The trade this week will be all about pollination talk. There are areas with a few issues I'm hearing. Most of the corn belt got through with no major problems. Couple that with the rain, spotty as it was, we got over the weekend, the traders will be looking for a way to put pressure on the markets. Funds are heavily long corn, the commercials will look for a way to make them pay for that position. In the end, the commercials always win. Look for a volatile week, but continue the trend lower. Look to test the support level around 6.60.
Soybeans are where my crystal ball gets cloudy. We've had decent growing conditions over most of the soy growing areas. Demand is there, but every run in the market is met with a break. No time to run sideways, and like I've said before. With a lack of positive influence in the market, it trends lower. Resistance comes in around 13.80 and it looks like we'll test that level, but would be surprised to see it close above 13.90 this week.
What are others opinions???
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Post by glowplug on Jul 25, 2011 16:54:17 GMT -5
Closing Comment Corn: Corn futures closed lower Monday. Prices fell today after a weekend of soaking rains in the U.S. Midwest combined with a forecast for more rain and cooler temperatures, which should be favorable for pollination. Weakness in outside markets added pressure, owing to the collapse of the debt ceiling talks in Washington over the weekend. This afternoon's crop progress report is expected to show declines in the condition of the crop during last week's extreme heat. September was 11 1/4 cents lower at $6.78 3/4 and December was 11 cents lower at $6.74 1/2.
Soybeans: Soybean futures settled lower Monday. Weather in the U.S. Midwest is improving, with good rains over the weekend and forecasts calling for additional rains as well as cooler temperatures, which pushed prices lower today. Bearish sentiment also came from the collapse of the debt ceiling talks over the weekend. Equity and commodity markets were weighed down by the possibility that Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling, leading to a U.S. default. August was 14 3/4 cents lower at $13.65 1/2 and November was 16 1/4 cents lower at $13.72.
Wheat: Wheat futures finished lower Monday. Forecasts for cooler weather and rain are forecast for the northern U.S. Plains, which should be favorable for crop development. Spillover weakness from corn and soybeans and concern about the budget impasse in Washington pressured prices as well. Losses were pared by short covering as traders took advantage of the set-back in prices. It is possible that traders will bail out of positions in commodity markets as we approach the debt ceiling deadline. CBOT Sep was 3 3/4 cents lower at $6.88 1/2, KCBT Sep was 9 1/2 cents lower at $7.70 1/2 and MGE was 7 3/4 cents lower at $8.30 3/4.
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Post by glowplug on Jul 26, 2011 7:32:14 GMT -5
Opening Calls Corn: Corn prices are expected to open higher on Tuesday. Futures prices gained about 4 cents in overnight trade with the strength coming from the falling value of the dollar and a sizeable decline in the condition ratings for corn in the Monday afternoon report. USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed that the condition of the crop deteriorated last week, which was expected considering the extremely hot weather. The share of the crop rated good declined by 4 points and the index accounting for all 5 categories fell by 8 points. The condition of the crop is now the lowest it has been since the end of the 2008 season. The share of the crop silking increased to 65%, putting more of the crop at risk of adverse weather. However, weather forecasts for this week are both cooler and wetter than the oppressive heat we saw last week. While there has been no resolution to the debt ceiling stalemate in Congress, it looks like outside markets may stabilize in early trading on Tuesday.
Soybeans: Soybean prices are expected to open 6 to 9 cents higher on Tuesday. The market is recovering from the sell-off early on Monday and overnight prices were higher. Soybean prices are responding to the weakening in the value of the dollar, which actually has a pretty modest affect on soybean exports. A drop in the condition ratings for soybeans is probably a bigger factor in the price gains overnight. USDA reported a two point drop in the share of the crop rated good and the overall index was down 3 points. The index for soybeans has dropped 9 points in the last two weeks. Dueling speeches by the President and the Speaker of the House appear to have calmed investors at least somewhat and it appears that the stock market could open a little higher on Tuesday.
Wheat: Wheat prices are expected to open a little higher on Tuesday with gains of around 2 to 5 cents. The weakening dollar is a positive development for U.S. wheat exports and that is providing some support for the market on Tuesday. In contrast to corn and soybeans, the condition of the spring wheat crop held steady last week and the ratings are still well above the 10 year average. The latest weather forecasts provide a bit more positive outlook for the Midwest, but a more pessimistic outlook for the South. Due to the severity of the drought, the region needs to see significant rain over the next couple of months to replenish the soil for the 2012 winter wheat crop that will be planted this fall. So far that is not in the forecast.
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