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Post by looter on Aug 21, 2011 20:31:04 GMT -5
Back in the day folks used Ag discussion boards to promote their own conviction. For example, guys used to talk up the virtue of their position. Somebody on the other side would take the opposite side and folks would duke it out.
A poster's goal was to talk themselves into sticking with their position regardless of short term price movement. It takes CONVICTION to hang onto a trade in the face of a few backward days.
In today's market environment, the moving parts got bigger, to the point a person doesn't have much conviction. Regardless of how rich you are, too much conviction will roast ya.
So it's harder than ever to talk yourself, let alone somebody else, into a given bias. Nothing would surprise anybody anymore. Euro debt problems, Arab uprisings, Nuke plant shutdowns etc.
The Fed was always a wild card, but today its a wild-as-frick-card. Who knows what inventions Bernanke is gonna come up with next? Look at the new Fed-speak that came about in recent times, "Agrogator Bank, QE, Nationailation of entire industries, what will tomorrow's headlines bring?
This is the human population bumping up against resource constraints. I don't see the population bomb receding. Welcome to the new normal.
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Post by looter on Aug 21, 2011 20:43:57 GMT -5
I edited the post above. It's still horrible.
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Post by looter on Aug 21, 2011 20:56:38 GMT -5
Anyway, my point was that you've got times like now when the wheat market is caught where perception and reality have a crazy divergence, but for the most part, supply discussion gets drowned out by other factors.
This is why Ag Discussion boards everywhere primarily are a cut n paste of econ news affair.
Or is it just me?
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dman
FFA member
Posts: 63
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Post by dman on Aug 21, 2011 21:04:20 GMT -5
I'm sorry looter, did you type something? I'm kinda distracted by your avatar.
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Post by Grainbelt on Aug 21, 2011 21:09:38 GMT -5
? This is the human population bumping up against resource constraints. I don't see the population bomb receding. Welcome to the new normal. Hasn't this been the case for all of human history? The contraints and the population change over time but there is always a certain percentage of the population that are on that thin line.
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Post by 3020 on Aug 21, 2011 21:11:47 GMT -5
Looter, I read marketing but don't often comment. I hate it. I am horrible at it. I don't know which way it will go and I don't know why. The thing with Ag markets in particular is I think they are manipulated. There are too many players and not enough cards. It is based in Chicago, the most corrupt place on earth, where you play their game, under their rules, with their cards, in their house. It is true that given enough time supply/demand will rule. But the manipulator will have your money before you can notice the card with the bent corner. More and more we are turning marketing over to the professional. They are like a dirty crooked lawyer, he is scum until you need him, then he becomes the most valuable asset you can have.
Keep posting your thoughts on marketing. Very good reads. BTW, I understood your orignal post perfectly.
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Post by 3020 on Aug 21, 2011 21:14:01 GMT -5
BTW Looter, get that picture of my wife off the internet.
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Post by Grainbelt on Aug 21, 2011 21:15:33 GMT -5
So it's harder than ever to talk yourself, let alone somebody else, into a given bias. Nothing would surprise anybody anymore. Euro debt problems, Arab uprisings, Nuke plant shutdowns etc. The Fed was always a wild card, but today its a wild-as-frick-card. Who knows what inventions Bernanke is gonna come up with next? Look at the new Fed-speak that came about in recent times, "Agrogator Bank, QE, Nationailation of entire industries, what will tomorrow's headlines bring? The Fed issue is going to be the interesting one to follow. They are completely helpless to change the relative value of assets but boy oh boy can they completely f with the denominator of the valuations! Ben is free to do as he chooses with little oversight but it appears that the political winds are starting to blow in his face a little. Will be interesting to see if these winds are enough to turn the tide of his deeply held beliefs that more dollars solves all ills. Oh...Im sorry, to Ben its not money printing, its increasing bank reserves. What a f'in clown.
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Post by looter on Aug 21, 2011 21:30:59 GMT -5
? This is the human population bumping up against resource constraints. I don't see the population bomb receding. Welcome to the new normal. Hasn't this been the case for all of human history? The contraints and the population change over time but there is always a certain percentage of the population that are on that thin line. I spose so. It was sorta a dulled effect back when trend-line ave daily flow rates of oil was up. Keynesian policy had a tailwind. It wasn't too tough for the Fed to juggle it's "dual mandate". Today, the same Keynesian policies employed since WWII have a HEADWIND. They were always "friction" on the system, but today that friction isn't masked. Anyway that's my view...
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Post by looter on Aug 21, 2011 21:39:20 GMT -5
Looter, I read marketing but don't often comment. I hate it. I am horrible at it. I don't know which way it will go and I don't know why. The thing with Ag markets in particular is I think they are manipulated. There are too many players and not enough cards. It is based in Chicago, the most corrupt place on earth, where you play their game, under their rules, with their cards, in their house. It is true that given enough time supply/demand will rule. But the manipulator will have your money before you can notice the card with the bent corner. More and more we are turning marketing over to the professional. They are like a dirty crooked lawyer, he is scum until you need him, then he becomes the most valuable asset you can have. Keep posting your thoughts on marketing. Very good reads. BTW, I understood your orignal post perfectly. I too suck at marketing. Sometimes I get an idea and lock onto it, but mostly I change my mind with the wind of the day. You just can't make money if you lack conviction. Anyway, here's some stuff I presently have loads of conviction in; 1) SD hay market. Its crazy cheap relative to everything else. 2) HRS market, and wheat relative to other grains. Really expect the wheat vs corn spread in deferreds to return to norm. 3) I think that fall cow/calf HEIFER pairs will be the last great buy on a foundation cow herd I will see in my lifetime. ============================================== Five years out I think metals will be infinity as measured in dollars as long as the next president follows Keynesian policy during times of crisis. Nothing would surprise me in the oil market, especially $59 oil by Valentine's Day.....
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Post by Grainbelt on Aug 21, 2011 21:54:18 GMT -5
Loot,
I am of the belief that Keynesianism is nothing more than an effort by pols to attempt to change reality to suit what they prefer reality to be, not what cold hard truths make it. It always fails, and no matter the percieved short term success that was imagined, it was never really so. Reality can't be changed because of the valuation of a currency, or political manipulation of nonmarket interest rates. Assets can be valued in any number of ways and in the real world pols can only try to manipulate them to suit their preference, but they soon return to real world relationships. Keysianism has never been reality. Supply constraints and basic laws of supply and demand always win in the end. Government fanagling only causes inefficiencies but can't change physical and economic realities. In short, gov'ts with keynsian views have fiddled and faddled for decades and the realities of the marketplace take place right around them day after day allocating resources as efficiently as possible given the roadblocks that are placed in their way. None of them seem to be aware that markets would do a much more efficient job if they would just get out of the way.
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Post by looter on Aug 21, 2011 22:01:10 GMT -5
So it's harder than ever to talk yourself, let alone somebody else, into a given bias. Nothing would surprise anybody anymore. Euro debt problems, Arab uprisings, Nuke plant shutdowns etc. The Fed was always a wild card, but today its a wild-as-frick-card. Who knows what inventions Bernanke is gonna come up with next? Look at the new Fed-speak that came about in recent times, "Agrogator Bank, QE, Nationailation of entire industries, what will tomorrow's headlines bring? The Fed issue is going to be the interesting one to follow. They are completely helpless to change the relative value of assets but boy oh boy can they completely f with the denominator of the valuations! Ben is free to do as he chooses with little oversight but it appears that the political winds are starting to blow in his face a little. Will be interesting to see if these winds are enough to turn the tide of his deeply held beliefs that more dollars solves all ills. Oh...Im sorry, to Ben its not money printing, its increasing bank reserves. What a f'in clown. WOW!! Thanks for your thoughts! Tomorrow AM I'm gonna finish pricing up to 75% of Pa's APH on corn/beans. (Already 40% there) Here's why, we have about 220% of his APH growing in each acre, so barring a hail storm (loads of ins on that) or a freak frost, its a party of a year finally. Our ave cost of production is looking like $2.83/bu on corn and $7.40 on beans. It was $4.11 on his HRW because we were lucky. We are gonna hang onto half of the wheat... prolly for a long time. I'm biased to the long side on corn/beans, but reckon taking some price risk off the table makes sense. Tomorrow AM we could wake up to a coordinated subway bomb in 5 major cities. As you've preached, the future is by definition, unknowable. In 40 years of farming, its never rained this much on the old man's place, and prices were never this high. We are looking at $1,000/acre gross income on corn this year on land that sold 4 years ago for $250/acre. The plan is to roll the profits into salt. That way we can make pemmican out of the cow herd once the collapse hits.
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Post by Grainbelt on Aug 21, 2011 22:13:14 GMT -5
WOW!! Thanks for your thoughts! Tomorrow AM I'm gonna finish pricing up to 75% of Pa's APH on corn/beans. (Already 40% there) Here's why, we have about 220% of his APH growing in each acre, so barring a hail storm (loads of ins on that) or a freak frost, its a party of a year finally. Our ave cost of production is looking like $2.83/bu on corn and $7.40 on beans. It was $4.11 on his HRW because we were lucky. We are gonna hang onto half of the wheat... prolly for a long time. I'm biased to the long side on corn/beans, but reckon taking some price risk off the table makes sense. Tomorrow AM we could wake up to a coordinated subway bomb in 5 major cities. As you've preached, the future is by definition, unknowable. In 40 years of farming, its never rained this much on the old man's place, and prices were never this high. We are looking at $1,000/acre gross income on corn this year on land that sold 4 years ago for $250/acre. The plan is to roll the profits into salt. That way we can make pemmican out of the cow herd once the collapse hits. I'm with you OBG. While corn, beans, and wheat could continue to rally right along. Failure to turn a windfall into a somewhat diverified pool of assets, of your choosing will be hard to take if the marketplace were to take this windfall potential away from you. There are plenty of options available for exchanging your grain into other assets.....Holding grain in the bin and holding dollars aren't your only options! As far as trading it all for salt.....well .....to each his own I guess. Have a good one.....Grainbelt.
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Post by thirsty on Aug 21, 2011 22:20:58 GMT -5
Pretty much the manufactured reality that the whole western hemisphere has exsisted in for the last 70 years, from politics to social relations all warped by this idea that govt can borrow and spend to infinity. It has driven an agenda that has broken all traditions, customs, and roles and almost always bails out the worst parasites. I don't see how any of it is ever paid back, it doesn't even go into tangible assets like infrastructure like it used to. If looter, Grantham and all the malthusians are right then this here now is the highwater mark of 70 years of epic phoniness, its gonna be nothing but chaos when it comes apart. Pure 100% unadulterated anarchy, and I fricking love it! ;D
Over a million Japanese soldiers starved to death willingly during the course of WWII. They believed that the fighting spirit inherent within Bushido could overcome even the physical aspects of hunger. When the marxists and their god idol welfare state run out of gasoline and capital (real tangible inputs) their ideas will be exposed for the lack of reality they truly possess. I at least have an inherent respect for the tenants of Bushido...
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Post by thirsty on Aug 21, 2011 22:25:10 GMT -5
Solar panels, generators, kilos of metal, bricks of ammo, good dirt, romanian hookers.... this is an era of hard assets, I mean if a dirty commie like Chavez gets I really don't see why it is so hard for so called free-market capitalist types.... The US dollar is the common share of keynesianism, you either get it or you don't.
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