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Post by linsal on Aug 20, 2011 8:46:15 GMT -5
Anyone know if Kraft or Jerome Cheese were the sellers this past Wednesday and Thursday? And can anyone tell me how Texas is up 8.3%? My m-i-l lives in Houston and her AC hasn't shut off since about March....I was reading a news clipping that indicated the cracks in the soil were so bad in parts of Texas that a small dog could fall in...and that some cities are running out of drinking water...and milk production is up?  |
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Post by glowplug on Aug 20, 2011 9:21:37 GMT -5
Not sure how TX did it? WI milk production is off due to that hot, humid time awhile back. Guys I talk with vary. The freestall guys with fans, mists, etc. are down some in milk but gained a lot of production back. Stall barn cow production mostly went down and didn't come back so much. Good thing I mothballed the big red dinosaur barn.
Long term there will be a long tail to this in reproduction issues. But with sexed semen, there won't be a replacement shortage. Guys that grow their own feed will tough this through but I'd suggest contracting a % of your production. And if you missed the high price, settle for a profitable price. The next year could be real ugly.
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Post by jrtheoriginal on Aug 21, 2011 11:27:52 GMT -5
Hey just started bangin around here so I thought I would say HI! I think they are adding water to the tanks down there or maybe they are recycling sconny milk into texas milk?
Kraft didn't sell I think it was Jerome from one source but it could be hillmar too!
Don't worry she's comin back like a freight train. also it should blow your socks off when it does!
Keep tuggin boys!
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Post by pldairy on Aug 21, 2011 12:25:26 GMT -5
hey Jr welcome to the frey |
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Post by linsal on Aug 21, 2011 20:16:15 GMT -5
Hey just started bangin around here so I thought I would say HI! I think they are adding water to the tanks down there or maybe they are recycling sconny milk into texas milk? Kraft didn't sell I think it was Jerome from one source but it could be hillmar too! Don't worry she's comin back like a freight train. also it should blow your socks off when it does! Keep tuggin boys! What's coming back JR? The amount of milk being shipped or the price of cheese? Are you still predicting that $30 milk? My crystal ball is cracked and dirty....when's that high priced milk gonna get here? |
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Post by glowplug on Aug 21, 2011 20:21:00 GMT -5
Welcome jr, about time we get enough "real" dairy farmers on AAF to get good conversations going in the Dairy Thread. Thus far, you slacker titty tuggers have been a disappointment.
I'm about ready to court martial you, break you cattle prod over my knee, and pelt you with used strainer socks.......................
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Post by jrtheoriginal on Aug 22, 2011 4:47:04 GMT -5
Hey just started bangin around here so I thought I would say HI! I think they are adding water to the tanks down there or maybe they are recycling sconny milk into texas milk? Kraft didn't sell I think it was Jerome from one source but it could be hillmar too! Don't worry she's comin back like a freight train. also it should blow your socks off when it does! Keep tuggin boys! What's coming back JR? The amount of milk being shipped or the price of cheese? Are you still predicting that $30 milk? My crystal ball is cracked and dirty....when's that high priced milk gonna get here? The price of milk! It just ain't there. |
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dman
FFA member
Posts: 63
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Post by dman on Aug 22, 2011 6:49:28 GMT -5
The milk is not there. Like I said the first half or better of July was relativelt good for making milk. The REAL heat and humidity did not start until July 17 and even then the effects didn't start to show until 7/19. We have a train wreck coming with the price and possible availabilty of corn. That is going to be a game changer. Normande said that it $7 dollar corn will not pencil even at $20 milk. If you were thinking of exiting within the next 5 years, maybe better to exit now before you lose all you equity? It will be interesting.
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Post by jrtheoriginal on Aug 22, 2011 6:58:34 GMT -5
I agree with you Dman. If your thinking about it even half way seriously better sellem now. Not that I want anyone to quit I just think this next round will be the giant sucking sound!
BTW I asked my dad after our phone conversation the other day does he ever remember a time when so many guys were talking about getting out?
He said back in 76 77 there was a mass exodus. Jimmy Carter the now second worst president had Bob Borgland (sp) as his sec of ag. ( he was from Minnesota) And this Bob fellar raised the support price on Milk every 6 months till he stopped guys leaving the industry. Dad said it lead to some of the best years in dairy till about 86-87.
I am wondering if anybody on here remembers those times. Dad couldn't remember all the particulars about it.
Well Glo, or Larry do you recollect that?
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Post by linsal on Aug 22, 2011 9:17:18 GMT -5
In the conversations I've had with folks around here, I have to believe that most of the equity which could be gotten (via bank loans) has already been gotten as a result of 2009 and the first half of 2010. If and when folks go in looking for more money, I think the bankers will be saying "no". Ag land prices are dropping in Wisconsin, thus putting a crimp on balance sheets. If milk prices drop too much, and given the way corn is looking, I suspect there will be many folks saying "to hell with it". My AI guy, who is my source of info on general happenings in the area, has shared that farms that typically upgrade equipment, put up buildings, etc. when the price of milk goes up have done nothing. That tells him (and me) that things are still tight. His receiveables are still higher than normal (pre 2009), but have been coming back down.
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Post by papapap on Aug 22, 2011 10:18:53 GMT -5
My recollection of that time period, supply/demand got out of kilter resulting in"dairy termination program" which took out alot of marginal producers, many who would have gone out anyway.
Unfortunately, there was more participation in milk deficit areas, ( southeast) rather than main milk producing areas, Gov't. increasing support prices encourage remaining producers to expand resulting in no net gain in supply situation in relatively short time period.
New Zealand at the same time eliminated subsidizing dairy, turning to more of a true free market and as result, have became more competitive on a least cost basis.
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Post by papapap on Aug 22, 2011 11:10:18 GMT -5
Other factors were interest rates jumped to ~ 20% and extreme drought in certain areas.
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Post by linsal on Aug 22, 2011 20:11:24 GMT -5
Is this why cheese dropped last week? This from the Daily Dairy Report.
American cheese sales apparently dropped off in July, sending inventory levels spiking.
Stocks jumped 30.9 million lbs. last month (see chart) , the largest one-month increase
in seven years, according to USDA’s “Cold Storage” report released this afternoon.
Holdings on July 31 were 648.6 million lbs., about 56 days of use, the most in five years.
Total cheese inventories on July 31 were 1.084 billion lbs., up 1% from last year.
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dman
FFA member
Posts: 63
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Post by dman on Aug 22, 2011 20:48:36 GMT -5
The Sep/Oct contracts took it on the chin again this week as relentless selling in the spot cheese market pressured prices. With so much bullish news
still out there, you might be scratching your head a little over the drop. While the domestic supply situation is still pretty supportive, we believe
global softening of dairy prices and a lull in demand are the primary movers. Oceania cheddar checked in at $2.02/lb this week. Knocking 10-15¢ off
for shipping and the U.S. is competitive at a $1.87-1.95 price. With cheese recently well above $2, exports slowed. Another factor is that much of
Europe is on vacation in August, further hurting demand. With milk still on the tight side east of the Rockies, a firm whey market, tight butter stocks,
high feed costs and schools continuing to open, more milk will be taken from manufacturing uses. International interest appears to be resuming as
well. In the short term we could see further pressure on cheese, but we may be carving out a bottom here.
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Post by glowplug on Aug 22, 2011 23:35:05 GMT -5
There was a time in the 1970's (I'll call it the Golden Age of WI Dairying but MN, MI were doing very well too.) Barns got added on to multiple times, lots of 20 by 70 silos were built, and PCA lent money to anyone.
But as papa says, the supply soon exceeded customer demand. The govt. was buying up milk power, cheese, butter and soon storage was full. TSHTF when high interest rates came thanks to Jimmah Carter. The grain embargo started land prices declining and so began the farm crisis of the 80s.
Then Cong. Jim Jeffords of VT came up with the Whole Herd Buyout brainfart, which still has the beef folks pizzed off. But reality is for the beef folks, that beef was already in decline when everything crashed for them in the mid-70s. Cow-calf guys went broke big time.
Anyhooo, lots of Upper Midwest dairy guys took advantage of the Whole Herd Buyout. Big mistake, because CA decided to do the opposite and expand while we contracted. WI lost a lot of good cheese plants (the DNR also shut a bunch down) and WI lost dairy farm infrastructure. Devastating to the small towns.
It was worse for MN, MI, IL, IA dairying because WI had so many more dairy farms to begin with. So WI survived in dairying but is a mere shadow of what was back in the 1970s.
Better solutions existed to the over production of dairy products but it's too late now to repair the damage done. We've moved on.
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