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Post by mrgrinch on Jul 30, 2011 4:07:56 GMT -5
Any cotton growers out there? Well we all know high prices cure high prices. Is that what has caused the downward spiral in cotton futures? Yes, I think so. Polyester blends are now reducing demand. Can we revive the 100% cotton fabric of our lives? Do we hope for high oil prices to make polyester competition dwindle or does that just make our production costs increase? Does the cheap dollar help or hurt in the long run? As always the lows are to low and the highs are to high, but doesn't that create opportunities? These and other questions stare us in the face. A penny for your thoughts.
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Post by ses on Jul 30, 2011 8:49:44 GMT -5
Man I hope you're wrong about the polyester thing. If people go back to dressing like they did in the seventies I'm gonna go blind.
Wonder how many dollars worth of cotton are actually in a cotton shirt? Probably like everything lse just a few cents difference even if prices for the raw product double.
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Post by lafarmer345 on Jul 30, 2011 9:39:08 GMT -5
I think you are right in high prices cure high prices. I also think there was a lot of spec money in the cotton market and they pulled it and down she goes. I listened to a guy talk a couple of weeks ago on the cotton market. He was of the opinion that as soon as USDA took into account the crop conditions in the high plains, the market could and should make another run. He said look at the August report....I think it is on the 15th.
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Post by fivelockboll on Jul 30, 2011 13:00:01 GMT -5
I don't know the answer to any of those questions, but don't lose sight of the fact these are damn good prices we're looking at right now, even if it's not where it was a few months ago.
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Post by mrgrinch on Jul 30, 2011 15:14:22 GMT -5
No doubt, if we can keep the price somewhere around the dollar mark we can pencil out a profit even with the higher production cost. I thought the 2 dollar mark was way overblown, but now its hard to forget and has become the upper benchmark in a lot of farmer's minds. I hope the USDA has not factored in the crop conditions and lack of crop in many cotton growing areas, but it is no big secret. Yes, we are dealing with gov't #'s and they are notorious for foul ups and big changes. There are many independant firms that are well aware of the US crop and they are not overly bullish either.
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mfs
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Post by mfs on Jul 30, 2011 21:20:28 GMT -5
MrGrinch this is on off the cuff comment for cotton but think poleyster has little to do with price. I am somewhat surprized with condition in high plains and normally where bales are made. We have done well in mid south. In years past we looked at monthly mill consumption. He have few mills for domestic consumption. Most in mid south looking at good cotton production with above average yields. I think price more a condition of world economic condition for lack of liquidity. Sams and Costco start marking down summer clothes in June. The world economy on precipice and not a condition of crop size or condition. I need no more clothes the rest of my life or shoes. The world may be coming to the realization of what they need. It is a market condition.
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Post by mrgrinch on Aug 1, 2011 14:28:21 GMT -5
At the risk of posting anything of consequence, I will reply to mfs's market condition. Well, the fact of the matter is many mills have already shifted to polyester/cotton blends as of last year. I do hope they will shift back to 100% cotton as fast as they shift to blends when high prices of cotton occur. As far as Sams/ Costco starting summer clearance sales early, I don't know many teenagers who shop there. They are the consumers we need to worry about. You may have all the clothes you need, but they don't. Fashion fads are our friend. I realize , if you are hungry,a meal is more important than those new clothes. If world market conditions are getting that bad we might as well shift this thread to the gloom and doom thread.
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mfs
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Post by mfs on Aug 3, 2011 22:32:44 GMT -5
mrgrinch exception taken for teens as oldest granddaughter is a model. She has been a couple of local magazines and signed a contract with an agency in Nashville and want to send her to NYC when she grows another inch and half to 5'9". I do not think teen business guides the cotton market. Our domestic mill consumption is zilch and dependent upon what happens in other parts of the world. It would be similar to having no local production of livestock and completely dependent upon our imports of the same for feed demand. India and China will determine the future of cotton. We were bullish on cotton two years ago and bearish this last year. I am somewhat surprized for problems in high plains but think a consequence of fear of the future.
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Post by looter on Aug 4, 2011 7:35:05 GMT -5
At the risk of posting anything of consequence, I will reply to mfs's market condition. Well, the fact of the matter is many mills have already shifted to polyester/cotton blends as of last year. I do hope they will shift back to 100% cotton as fast as they shift to blends when high prices of cotton occur. As far as Sams/ Costco starting summer clearance sales early, I don't know many teenagers who shop there. They are the consumers we need to worry about. You may have all the clothes you need, but they don't. Fashion fads are our friend. I realize , if you are hungry,a meal is more important than those new clothes. If world market conditions are getting that bad we might as well shift this thread to the gloom and doom thread. Do you folks have "Play Dough's Closets" in your areas? My friends don't buy a lot of clothes for their teenagers etc, but around Sioux Falls their clothing bill is beyond comprehension. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area, its totally unacceptable for teenagers, especially girls, to wear the same outfit twice in a semester. Play Doughs closet is a 2nd hand store that is becoming huge. Because its a social stigma to wear the same outfit twice, and because closet space is finite, Suburban kids literally have to trade in their clothes. So Play Doughs is sorta a swap meet.
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Post by looter on Aug 4, 2011 7:43:22 GMT -5
This cotton market is a fascinating case study. It reminds me of the old 19th century whale bone market. As whales became increasingly scarce, the price of whale bone, used in woman's corsets as the "hoops", fluctuated in price maddingly. First skyrocketing, then crashing, then making new highs, all the while creating confusion on what the supply really was.
I can think of very few commodities which average daily production did not peak out in 2005. For the most part, we will have less of most commodities each year going forward. The scarcity will create changes in human behavior beyond belief.
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Post by mrgrinch on Aug 4, 2011 23:24:29 GMT -5
No, looter can't say that I ever heard of Play Dough's Closets. Interesting and affordable way to be a snob. I do agree with mfs on one point. I certainly need a meal (or two) before I need a new shirt. Therefore I have to be more bullish on grains than cotton long term. More mouths to feed with less acres to do it. Hunger trumps most basic needs. Thirst on the other hand is first and foremost, but that's another subject. This drought in Texas with lakes drying up is scary.
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mfs
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Post by mfs on Aug 4, 2011 23:33:47 GMT -5
mrgrinch, I do think the point that looter was making "as for what we need". We are faced with scary times. I do not agree with doom castle philosphy but children crticize for preparations.
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Post by mrgrinch on Oct 3, 2011 23:27:25 GMT -5
Any new thoughts on the cotton market. The terrible Texas crop news should be factored in now. Last year cotton modules were stacked everywhere here on the south plains and the price went up to $2.00/lb. This year having trouble holding that $1.00 mark with virtually no crop. It is hard to grasp the reality of these price scenarios on the local scene. Makes you wonder where the price would be if all of Texas had a bumper.
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Post by ses on Oct 4, 2011 6:15:50 GMT -5
The cotton market makes about as much sense as the wheat market. A good big part of Kansas is still unplanted cuz they're waiting for a rain. At this point it doesn't look like there's going to be much of a wheat crop but the price has dropped two dollars in six weeks.
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Post by mrgrinch on Dec 1, 2011 16:21:58 GMT -5
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