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Post by MarlandS on Jan 12, 2012 11:35:32 GMT -5
Meaning what ? If others leave because I won't allow someone to blatantly lie about this board and I won't allow them to constantly call other members names in an effort to run them off all the while touting free speech, then they can go , I don't care .
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Post by MarlandS on Jan 12, 2012 11:36:07 GMT -5
How many left because of his antics ?
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Post by wheatfarmer on Jan 12, 2012 12:15:01 GMT -5
Whoa whoa whoa, Grand Poo Bear. I was meaning it as a good thing as a couple others seem to follow him around to engage in nonsense unbecoming a farmer. Without his posts those other 2 have been less visable. Excuse my poor English for what was meant as a pat on the back.
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Post by MarlandS on Jan 12, 2012 12:26:18 GMT -5
Oh , i knew that ;D and thanks .
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Post by Rich© on Jan 12, 2012 13:07:45 GMT -5
I'm sorry, This is what I read... www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2012/01_12_2012.aspThat's today's report right? That says numbers are down from 2010 What stupid s.o.b. thought that the market should tank today? That board of trade is the most worthless bunch of idiots in one spot. Why in the hell didn't Osama leave the towers alone and take out the KC and Chi-town board of trades? I'd celebrated with the muslims then.
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Post by papapap on Jan 12, 2012 13:17:48 GMT -5
I think he was allowed to hang himself, and he chose to do so.
OCD is my prognosis, but apparently I am an unpatriotic, Paulbot druggie who doesn't farm exactly like they do in Wisc., so what do I know? Life, and AAF, will go on. Maybe with a little less name calling tho.
Sidenote, there is alot of good cheese NOT made in Wisconsin!!!
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jan 12, 2012 13:20:54 GMT -5
They don't generally trade back a year, they trade back one report, and they trade vs private firm expectations.
My take from Linn, and others, is that they expected USDA to lower the corn yield, and possibly leave the soybean yield alone.
Instead, they RAISED the corn yield by .5bu/ac and raised the soybean number by .2bu/ac.
This was a surprise to the traders, and therefore the sharp action today. Had USDA lowered from the December number, maybe .5-1bu/ac, we would not have had this reaction. Instead, we would have probably been steady to slightly higher.
Good news in the reports this morning was for wheat producers, from my perspective, but it is lower in sympathy to other grains.
There might be your diamond in the rough today.
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Post by Rich© on Jan 12, 2012 13:24:34 GMT -5
I don't see how Dave.. Last I looked March wheat was down 36 cents. The rest of the board was in red. The only commodity to not take it in the short substantially was Oats.
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jan 12, 2012 13:57:10 GMT -5
I don't see how Dave.. Last I looked March wheat was down 36 cents. The rest of the board was in red. The only commodity to not take it in the short substantially was Oats. What I meant..... the report looks a little friendly to wheat. Today's price action isn't supported by the report. It's getting a beat-down because corn and soybeans are too. It has more upside potential. If I traded wheat, I'd think about cautiously buying, probably with calls out of the money above the market. *****Lifted from the NASS grain stocks report. "All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 1.66 billion bushels, down 14 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 405 million bushels, down 26 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.25 billion bushels, are down 10 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2011 indicated disappearance is 490 million bushels, down 5 percent from the same period a year earlier." They can't hide from this, when tied with the bogus production and carryout, in the end, they still have to deal with 14% less wheat in storage than a year ago. 26% less on-farm stocks and 10% less in commercial storage and in processor hands. I tend to look elsewhere than the production and carryout numbers for the truth.
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Post by Rich© on Jan 12, 2012 14:21:15 GMT -5
Problem is, I don't know that the investors, the mills, and the b.o.t. gurus do such as you.
By majority, I think they hang on these reports and not do homework and then here's our end results today.
Foolishness.
.....and I don't mean you by any means. I mean the silliness of todays "fear" that caused the market to do what it did. It's just Foolishness.
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Post by Hobbyfarmer on Jan 12, 2012 14:28:22 GMT -5
Looks like a buying opportunity is upon us for those that need one.
As for me ... 1) I plant it
2) raise it
3) harvest it
4) sell it
mostly in that order so I am into phase 4 and am not very worried right now. We usually have a Jan sell off usually happens a week earlier than this then will work it's self back up into Feb... we have had a nice run up the last couple of weeks.
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Post by MarlandS on Jan 12, 2012 14:48:29 GMT -5
I still don't think it's going to be long before the markets make a run, but I don't fully understand the whole marketing thing. All I know is what I see , elevators are full to the point of not being able to take anymore Jan corn, weight limits will probably go on Jan 15th effectively stopping deliveries . Also there is still the fact that several locations emptied bins of '11 soybeans and refilled them with corn .
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jan 12, 2012 17:30:28 GMT -5
Oh, don't get me wrong. Each trading house has a fleet of cubicle rats waiting with baited breath for each change in the particular trend or indicator that they watch. Today probably made some of them piss down their leg. Today probably made a good bonus for others.
As a producer, I felt nervous yesterday that the "chatter" I heard from the broker I deal with, and from what I read, made it sound like it was just as likely that it could go down as go up. Too much was hinging on the report. Weather in S/A is still sketchy, but they are at about July 10th in the equivalent as our season. Still early enough that IF they got rain, they could partially recover the drought stress.
Couple that negative news with the POSSIBILITY that USDA is manipulating the numbers, and I was as nervous as a whore in church yesterday. I put on protection. If I was wrong, I'm out 11 cents. Today, I'm right. Either way, I felt it was a sucker bet. Not much downside, and a LOT more upside. At the same time, I sold a bit of 2012 corn, maybe 10%. Those things together will keep my banker, and my wife, happy.
Today, I look like a genius. Tomorrow, it may be all wrong and I have to unwind the position.
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Post by eddiedry on Jan 12, 2012 19:23:54 GMT -5
I don't see how Dave.. Last I looked March wheat was down 36 cents. The rest of the board was in red. The only commodity to not take it in the short substantially was Oats. OATS KNOWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Dave-ECIA on Jan 13, 2012 8:56:18 GMT -5
Eddie, I've heard that old adage for years. If oats is right. Up a little again overnight, to follow your logic, then grains should firm up today. This skeptic says "We'll wait and see".
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